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Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook December 2017 - Holiday season heralds another year of price strength

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29 December 2017

Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook December 2017 - Holiday season heralds another year of price strength

Report summary

There has been little time in December to reflect on an exceptional year in metallurgical coal markets. The April cyclone back-log, and restocking prior to the Q1 wet season in Australia, have prompted high demand for premium hard coking coal amongst most major buyers. Chinese demand has held up well too, despite winter pollution policies. Supply chains have not been able to keep up, and while December has seen an improvement in Australia, anxiety over supply stability will remain a primary influence as we move into 2018.   

Table of contents

    • Key market data (selected)
    • Chinese prices take time to respond
    • PCI and SSCC prices benefit from HCC shortage but discounts still high
    • Supply fears to ease but no price collapse on horizon
      • Key prices - history and quarterly forecasts (US$/t, nominal)
    • Ship queues declining, but port maintenance and low rail deliveries have taken a toll
      • Queensland metallurgical coal exports, Mt
    • Global suppliers chasing production increases
    • Coronado buys Curragh
    • 2+26 impact lower-than-expected thus far
    • Chinese met coal supply is also still under pressure
    • 2018 economic outlook is positive but we won’t see much hot metal production growth
    • China revises steel export taxes but supply surge unlikely
    • Plans for coastal shift in steel capacity make progress
    • Investment also being made in international steel

Tables and charts

This report includes 7 images and tables including:

  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Demand: Image 1
  • Steel production - other majors, Mt
  • Demand: Image 3
  • Blast furnace iron production - other majors, Mt
  • Prices: Image 1
  • Supply: Image 1

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    cms metallurgical trade short term outlook December 2017.xls

    XLS 2.38 MB

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook December 2017 - Holiday season heralds another year of price strength

    PDF 333.43 KB

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook December 2017 - Holiday season heralds another year of price strength

    ZIP 1.75 MB

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