Commodity market report
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10 Pages

Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook February 2016


Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook February 2016

Report summary

Metallurgical coal spot prices ticked upwards in the last few days of February. Buoyed somewhat by a returning China from Lunar New Year – but also from some rains across the Blackwater rail system in Queensland – prices reached US$78/t, from US$74/t two weeks prior.

Where will the Q2 benchmark contract settle? Discussions are ongoing but we believe a US$78/t level is fair, no change from our forecast in January. Chinese coking coal imports slipped in January month-on-month and the property sector is still at overcapacity. Some US supply cuts are coming thick and fast – 10 Mt from total production. But there is a growing concern now from some Asian steelmakers that production risks and access to reliable, quality supply are starting to bite.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook February 2016 PDF - 365.60 KB 10 Pages, 1 Tables, 9 Figures
  • CMS metallurgical trade short term outlook Feb 2016.xls XLS - 1.82 MB

Description

Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Metallurgical Coal Market Short Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the metallurgical coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
    • Key prices - history and forecasts (US$/t, nominal)
  • Supply
    • Anglo divesting Moranbah North and Grosvenor
    • BHP Billiton exports fall 3% in H2 2015, costs continue to get squeezed lower
    • Full-year Australian exports totalled 183 Mt
    • US production cuts coming quick and fast: reach 10 Mt for 2016
    • Vale completes Nacala logistics corridor
  • Demand
    • Chinese steel industry reform: where to next?
    • Indian market weakness: minimum import prices set amidst opening of Kalinganagar
    • European demand ends the year on balance, but looming losses coming
    • Iranian sanctions lift: new import market now open for coking coal?
    • Steel and blast furnace iron production rates finally stabilise in Jan 2016

In this report there are 10 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Key market data
  • Prices
    • Prices: Image 1
  • Supply
    • Anglo's key Australian assets – marketable production and cash margin (2016 and 2017)
    • Queensland ports: metallurgical exports (Mt)
  • Demand
    • European coking coal imports (Mt/month)
    • Annual coking coal imports (Mt)
    • Global and Chinese steel production(Mt)
    • Steel production - other major producers (Mt)
    • Demand: Image 5
    • Blast furnace iron production - other major producers (Mt)
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