Metallurgical coal spot prices ticked upwards in the last few days of February. Buoyed somewhat by a returning China from Lunar New Year – but also from some rains across the Blackwater rail system in Queensland – prices reached US$78/t, from US$74/t two weeks prior.
Where will the Q2 benchmark contract settle? Discussions are ongoing but we believe a US$78/t level is fair, no change from our forecast in January. Chinese coking coal imports slipped in January month-on-month and the property sector is still at overcapacity. Some US supply cuts are coming thick and fast – 10 Mt from total production. But there is a growing concern now from some Asian steelmakers that production risks and access to reliable, quality supply are starting to bite.
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Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.
This Metallurgical Coal Market Short Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.
Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the metallurgical coal markets.
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Commodity market report | Feb 2016
Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook February 2016
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