Traditionally a quiet month as China celebrates the New Year, this February has been notable for the increase in metallurgical coal supply risks. Chinese mine production has been weak, as expected, but it is Australia that has had the most visible problems. Rainfall has been well above the February average, and the emerging dispute between Queensland's network operator, Aurizon, and the system regulator, is likely to affect supply in the short-term, even if a compromise is reached prior to the Queensland Competition Authority's final decision in March. For the remainder of 2018, the Two Sessions meeting in China during March will provide important guidance as to the Government's approach to pollution control and supply reform. We have increased our forecast prices for Q2 2018 on the basis of recent supply issues, but will await the outcome of the Two Sessions conference before reconsidering our forecast falling price trend for the subsequent eighteen months.