Commodity Market Report
Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook February 2021: volatility rules in rudderless market
Report summary
Like a sea captain navigating through fog, the met coal market has precious few visual signals to guide it. China’s ongoing Australia ban, and a dearth of activity over the Chinese new year meant precious few fixed price spot deals were completed. FOB prices for Australian PHCC remain in turbulent waters, plummeting once again mid-way through February. The fall in price appeared to hinge on two resold term-contract cargoes by a global steel company. European and Indian mills also retreated after a period of strong restocking. Despite the challenges, including a working assumption that the Chinese ban will remain in place throughout 2021, we remain positive about the prospects for metallurgical coal demand in 2021. A stimulus-heavy environment should provide support to met coal prices, in a year in which Indian market dynamics will play a more influential role.
Table of contents
- Coronavirus update: Month ended February
-
Outlook
- Indian dynamics a stronger influence on price this year
- Lower Chinese seaborne imports in absence of Australia
- Premium HCC supply constrained
- Stranded cargoes remain a potential disruptor to prices
- PCI prices rebound
- China: CFR China price faces pressure from high sulphur domestic supply
- Australia: Queensland’s metallurgical coal throughput slump in January
- Australia: production winners and losers in 2020
- Australia: Anglo’s Moranbah North suspended
- Australia: application for South32’s extension at Dendrobium declined
- Canada: supply continues to benefit from Chinese pricing
- US: production and exports show year-end recovery
- Indonesia: metallurgical coal exports to rise in 2021
- Mozambique: Metallurgical coal exports down to a four-year low in 2020
- China: met coal imports to fall in 2021 as Australian coal ban lingers
- China: lower quality domestic HCC prices soften as supply recovers
- India: strong steel demand outlook with Government’s impetus on infrastructure, automotive and housing sector
- Japan: mixed signals on steel demand recovery in Q1 2021
- Europe: ArcelorMittal came back strong in 2020
Tables and charts
This report includes 12 images and tables including:
- Infection rate versus hot metal production
- Cost versus spot price (US$)
- Key prices - history & quarterly forecasts (US$/t nominal)
- Queensland ports: Metallurgical coal exports (Mt per month)
- Australian met coal production losers (2019 versus 2020)*
- Australian met coal production winners (2019 versus 2020)*
- 2020 US metallurgical coal production versus exports
- Forecast metallurgical coal exports to China (Mt)
- Global and Chinese crude steel production (Mt)
- Crude steel production – Ex-China producers (Mt)
- Global and Chinese blast furnace hot metal production (Mt)
- Blast furnace hot metal production – Ex-China producers (Mt)
What's included
This report contains:
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