Commodity Market Report
Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook January 2020: positive start unsettled by coronavirus
Report summary
We saw an early hike of US$13/t in HCC export spot prices by mid-January, driven by restarted customs clearance, domestic supply shortages and a deal to improve trade relations between the US and China. This upward trajectory in price was likely to continue had it not been for the outbreak of the coronavirus and early reinstatement of Chinese port restrictions. Read the outlook to find out: How the coronavirus has downgraded our pricing outlook, why Chinese port restrictions are back sooner than anticipated, and why we expect supply to tighten
Table of contents
- Chinese supply constraints a dominant force for higher prices
- Indian demand and seaborne supply risks add to price momentum
- Earlier-than-usual Chinese import restrictions put a lid on demand
- Outlook positive, but clouded by Coronavirus
- PCI buyers and sellers move to shore up quarterly system
- Australia: Queensland exports spike in December
- Australia: BHP supply down in 2019, despite a strong final quarter
- Australia: South32’s output impacted by Appin longwall move in Q4
- Australia: Anglo’s 2019 output on the rise
- Australia: Coronado’s Curragh suspends operations following mine incident
- Australia: derailment near Middlemount
- US: supply trimmed further but hopes fall to the return of Chinese business
- Russia: Kolmar to continue driving growth in coking coal exports
- Mozambique: Moatize to bounce back in H2
- Canada: major HCC project to learn its permit fate
- China: economy levels off
- China: steel demand strengthens in 2019
- China: Wuhan coronavirus to slow economy and lead to falling steel prices
- China: new import quota will fail to stem coal influx
- China: US HCC struggles to compete
- India: modest growth expected for coal imports in 2020
- India: RINL to restart blast furnace.
- India: National Infrastructure Pipeline to boost indigenous steel consumption
- South East Asia: imported met coal demand in Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries continue to grow in 2020
Tables and charts
This report includes 9 images and tables including:
- Key prices - history and quarterly forecasts (US$/t, nominal)
- Queensland ports: metallurgical coal exports (Mt)
- BMA quarterly production, 100% basis (Mt)
- HCC total cash cost curve CIF for 2020 into China (value in use)
- Proposed infrastructure investments in India
- Global and Chinese crude steel production (Mt)
- Global and Chinese blast furnace hot metal production (Mt)
- Crude steel production – other major producers (Mt)
- Blast furnace hot metal production – other major producers (Mt)
What's included
This report contains:
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