Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook January 2021: Aussie seaborne PHCC prices take a fast turn upwards Report

Commodity Market Report 31 January 2021

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Report summary

Over the second half of January, FOB prices for Australian PHCC rocketed up by ~US$50/t. Australian supply has contracted coupled with some market nervousness on a looming heavy wet season in Queensland. Spot tonnes from other regions are rare, as China continues to offer high CFR prices. Ex-China demand continues to rise with most mills approaching pre-virus levels, returning faster than coke production and driving up steel and coal prices.

Current state-of-play
- Australia PHCC roars back
Outlook
- How long will the Australian ban last?
- How will pricing dynamics play out
- Australia: Queensland’s metallurgical coal throughput jumps in December
- China: Covid and high prices see domestic coal producers set to work through Lunar New Year
- China: bull run on coke prices may run out of momentum into Q1
- Mongolia: truck counts across China border on the rise
- Mozambique: Vale prepares for coal exit
- Mozambique: exports could rise in 2021
- Russia: railway capacity to limit upside to exports
- USA: New projects will add supply into the market in 2021
- China: finishes the year with strong economic activity
- China: crude steel demand remains strong while property sector might be a swing factor in 2021
- China: eroded steel profits and surging raw material costs during latest Covid-19 outbreak
- India: firm outlook for coal imports in India
- Japan: steel demand renewal leads to coke shortfall
- Nippon Steel restarts Kashima No. 1 BF, but other furnaces doubtful to return
- Vietnam’s Hoa Phat starts fourth blast furnace
- Europe: Taranto fires up idled blast furnace as part of plan to increase production

Tables and charts

This report includes 8 images and tables including:

Key prices - history & quarterly forecasts (US$/t nominal)
Queensland ports: Metallurgical coal exports (Mt per month)
BMA quarterly production (Mt)

Australian met coal production by Company (Mt)
Global and Chinese crude steel production (Mt)
Crude steel production – Ex-China producers (Mt)
Global and Chinese blast furnace hot metal production (Mt)
Blast furnace hot metal production – Ex-China producers (Mt)

What's included

This report contains:

Metallurgical coal markets - short-term outlook data - Jan 2021.xlsx

XLSX 617.63 KB
Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook January 2021: Aussie seaborne PHCC prices take a fast turn upwards

PDF 1.04 MB