Commodity market report
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10 Pages

Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook July 2016

Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook July 2016

Report summary

As prices for hard coking coal breach US$100/t for the second time this year, cautious optimism is the prevalent emotion of coal suppliers. China is at the heart of current volatility, yet again. Whilst steel capacity cuts are lifting steel price sentiment, forced coal mine capacity cuts have brought balance back to the metallurgical coal market. Flooding has added some extra heat to pricing. These favourable conditions will last long enough for Q4 contract prices to rise again, but once the effect of stimulus and supply-side reform wane, contract prices will likely fall below US$90/t. Of course, everything depends on the determination of Chinese authorities to see through their capacity reduction plans. We are pleased to announce the launch of our global, monthly supply-demand balance. We have expanded our import/export data to include all seaborne coal trading countries and present a monthly data series, from 2014 to end-2017.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook July 2016 PDF - 323.24 KB 10 Pages, 1 Tables, 7 Figures
  • cms metallurgical trade short term outlook July.xls XLS - 1.86 MB


Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Metallurgical Coal Market Short Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the metallurgical coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
    • H2 outlook is positive
    • Prices will moderate in 2017
      • Metallurgical coal price forecast
  • Supply
    • US exports enjoying a mid-year bounce
      • Alpha re-emerges from Chapter 11
    • Mozambique poised to increase met coal exports
    • Canadian production consistent
    • Russian exports and coal projects stall
  • Demand
    • Outlook for rest of 2016 is positive
    • China steel capacity cuts to persist and accelerate
    • Lacklustre steel activity outside China
    • Japan and South Korea decide to stimulate

In this report there are 8 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Key Facts
  • Prices
    • Prices: Image 1
  • Supply
    • Queensland Exports
    • US exports from Hampton Roads
  • Demand
    • Global and Chinese steel production (Mt)
    • Steel production - other major producers
    • Global and Chinese blast furnace iron production (Mt)
    • Blast furnace iron production - other major producers (Mt)
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