Commodity market report
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12 Pages

Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook July 2017: China turns market on its head


Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook July 2017: China turns market on its head

Report summary

Prices for premium hard coking coal have risen sharply in July, as Chinese coking coal use spikes to meet demand from the domestic BF-BOF steel sector. Self-imposed production curbs by Chinese coking coal miners until at least September, have tightened the domestic market, but also reaffirmed the view for many, that prices for the best quality coal will stay elevated. International suppliers have responded reasonably well to higher prices in 2017, with Mozambique and the US leading the way. Australian supply has recovered post cyclone Debbie, but mine closures and lingering supply chain problems has seen miners struggle to keep up with demand in July. Although a number of the demand factors keeping prices high will ameliorate over time, the remainder of Q3 looks strong, and prices over the next 12 months will ultimately be determined by decisions taken by Chinese coking coal miners, and supply performance in Australia. 

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  • Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook July 2017:China turns market on its head PDF - 338.51 KB 12 Pages, 1 Tables, 6 Figures
  • cms metallurgical trade short term outlook july 2017.xls XLS - 2.13 MB

Description

Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Metallurgical Coal Market Short Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the metallurgical coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
    • Key market data
  • Prices
    • Demand for steel has accelerated
    • The campaign to close induction furnaces (IFs) and other illegal EAF capacity has boosted BOF crude steel production.
    • Fears of Chinese winter restrictions under the "26+2" policy may be bringing forward production
      • Key prices – history and forecast, US$/t nominal
  • Supply
    • Supply fighting to keep up with demand
    • Australian exports close to capacity but premium HCC struggling to meet demand
      • Queensland metallurgical coal exports, Mt
    • Semi-soft market consolidation: Glencore purchases 49% of Hunter Valley Operations
    • US supply stays high but are cracks appearing?
  • Demand
    • China leading the way
    • European union demand supported by strong economic growth
    • India coal demand held back by poor profitability, and weak steel demand

In this report there are 7 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Prices
    • Prices: Image 1
  • Supply
    • Supply: Image 1
  • Demand
    • Global and Chinese steel production, Mt
    • Steel production – other majors, Mt
    • Global and Chinese blast furnace iron production, Mt
    • Blast furnace iron production – other majors, Mt
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