Commodity Market Report
Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook July 2019: Falling prices seek turning point
Report summary
A myriad of negative forces have piled pressure on metallurgical coal prices this month. Prices for Australian low-volatile HCC have fallen by US$30/t since late May. Chinese port restrictions, seasonally low demand, and the effect of broad supply improvements during the second quarter, have combined to force prices down. Many of the factors that have shifted the market dynamic will be short-lived, and despite near term uncertainty around prices, we expect a tightening in the market to push prices higher after August.
Table of contents
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The bad news: Myriad forces drive hard reversal of fortune
- PCI spot prices under intense pressure
- The good news: Prices will be stronger by year's end
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Plenty of possible externalities remain
- Australia looks to build on solid second quarter
- Anglo American benefits from early longwall moves
- BHP production climbs but will be hard to maintin
- South32’s production up 20% on Appin revival
- Anglo approves Grasstree's replacement
- Vale lowers its Mozambique metallurgical coal outlook for 2019
- More Russian coal moving to Asian markets
- US sees a flurry of bankruptcies
- Blackhawk Mining should be a quick process
- Cambrian Coal assets are likely to be sold out of bankruptcy
- Blackjewel outcome is more uncertain
- China’s economy has slowed substantially, but should be stable in H2
- China’s met coal demand remain robust, as coke profits improve
- ArcelorMitall holds off on Krakow idling
- India buying should improve after monsoon, but other headwinds exist
Tables and charts
This report includes 6 images and tables including:
- Key Prices - history and quarterly forecasts (US$/t, nominal)
- Queensland Ports: Metallurgical coal exports (Mt)
- Global and Chinese crude steel production (Mt)
- Crude steel production - other major producers (Mt)
- Global and Chinese blast furnace hot metal production (Mt)
- Blast furnace hot metal production - other major producers (Mt)
What's included
This report contains:
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