Commodity market report
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9 Pages

Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook March 2016

Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook March 2016

Report summary

The Q2 benchmark price for low-volatile coking coal was settled at US$84/t on 22 March, a US$3/t increase over Q1. Leading up to the settlement date from mid-February, Australian low-volatile spot prices had gained roughly US$10/t. Australian exports were lowered by heavy rains, Chinese rail service was held up by harsh winter weather and small Chinese mines were slow to return after the break for Vernal Equinox Festival. We expect a US$1/t price fall for Q3, then flat prices to mid-2017.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook March 2016 PDF - 324.48 KB 9 Pages, 1 Tables, 6 Figures
  • CMS metallurgical trade short term outlook Mar 2016 v4.xls XLS - 1.87 MB


Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Metallurgical Coal Market Short Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the metallurgical coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
    • Key market data
  • Prices
    • Key prices - history and forecasts (US$/t, nominal)
  • Supply
    • Australian exports drop significantly in February due to rains
    • Queensland ports: metallurgical exports (Mt)
    • Another US bankruptcy possible – Peabody Energy
    • Russian supply reduced due to accident
    • Mongolia Energy Corporation secures 1 Mt deal with Xinjiang Province
    • New World Resources taken over by bondholders
    • Poland’s JSW to restructure mines - could create opening for some imports
    • Pinnacle mine producing coal again
    • Metinvest keeps Carter-Roag open, despite WARN notice for potential closing
    • Indonesian producer temporarily halts production
    • International Coal Ventures Ltd will drastically cut Mozambique mine output
    • China proposes higher exports to save some production
  • Demand
    • European Union imposes tariffs on Imports
    • Tariffs may be too late to save Tata’s Port Talbot mill
    • Wuhan Iron & Steel Company plans enormous cuts
    • Global steel production continues to decline

In this report there are 7 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Prices
    • Prices: Image 1
  • Supply
    • Supply: Image 1
  • Demand
    • Global and Chinese steel production(Mt)
    • Steel production - other major producers (Mt)
    • Global and Chinese blast furnace iron production (Mt)
    • Blast furnace iron production - other major producers (Mt)
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