Commodity Market Report

Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook March 2018: Supply availability improves and prices recede

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10 April 2018

Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook March 2018: Supply availability improves and prices recede

Report summary

With more supply available, metallurgical coal prices started to decline in mid-March. Prices were stable at about US$230/t in the early March and fell by about US$40/t by the end of the month. Aurizon’s rail maintenance poses some risk to export levels in the near term as work is moving to the Goonyella line.  Over the remainder of the year, numerous global mine expansions, extensions and re-openings will apply downwards pressure on prices.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Major buyers showing flexibility in PCI and SSCC settlements
    • Queensland’s exports rose in February
    • Key Prices - history and quarterly forecasts (US$/t, nominal)
    • Aurizon continues to warn of potential 20 Mtpa impact to throughput
    • Grasstree mine seeks to continue mining to 2022
    • Byerwen mine continues development
    • Stanmore receives permit to mine Isaac Plains East
    • Glencore purchases Rio Tinto’s Hail Creek mine
    • Rio Tinto also sells Kestrel mine marking its full exit from coal
    • ICVL restarts Benga mine
    • Mongolian exports to China are increasing
    • Conuma to reopen Willow Creek
    • Teck Resources lowers Q1 2018 production guidance
    • US mines mostly look towards some 2018 expansion
    • Corsa Coal focuses on met coal
    • US steel tariffs could cause shift in coal sourcing
    • Additional tariff on China
    • Chinese winter production restrictions affect lower than expected
    • Some Chinese areas extend winter restrictions past 15 March
    • The return of bankrupt Indian steel companies could boost demand
    • New coke ovens in India
    • Indonesia to start new blast furnace
    • Shandong Iron and Steel to start new coke ovens

Tables and charts

This report includes 7 images and tables including:

  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Queensland Ports: Metallurgical coal exports (Mt)
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Global and Chinese Steel production (Mt)
  • Demand: Image 2
  • Demand: Image 3
  • Demand: Image 4

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    cms metallurgical trade short term outlook March 2018.xls

    XLS 2.55 MB

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook March 2018: Supply availability improves and prices recede

    PDF 466.95 KB

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook March 2018: Supply availability improves and prices recede

    ZIP 1.96 MB

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