Commodity market report
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11 Pages

Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook May 2016

Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook May 2016

Report summary

 Coking coal spot prices are back down in the mid-US$80/t range FOB Queensland. The one-month rise to US$102/t was mirrored by a one-month fall. Was it all an illusion? No, there are some important lessons for the metallurgical coal market. Yes, there have been strong signs of short-term speculation on the Dalian coking coal exchange (with similar rises in steel and iron ore prices). But there have also been some underlying trends that are somewhat masked by the appearance of the price spike.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook May 2016 PDF - 319.80 KB 11 Pages, 1 Tables, 8 Figures
  • cms metallurgical trade short term outlook may 2016.xls XLS - 1.82 MB


Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Metallurgical Coal Market Short Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the metallurgical coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
    • What goes up most come down
  • Demand
    • China: new spending earmarked for infrastructure, significantly lower than prior years
    • China: but how will spending mesh with capacity reduction targets?
      • New starts in Brazil, Serbia and modernisation in Ukraine
      • Likely lower demand in UK and Japan
      • India: Dolvi plan redesigned, but demand still higher in 2016
  • Supply
    • Turning a corner? Restarts and new starts underway in Australia
    • Launch of Moatize volumes through Nacala
    • Supply availability in doubt in central Europe
    • US bankruptcy latest: re-emerging signs

In this report there are 9 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Key market data
  • Prices
    • Forecast of metallurgical coal prices
  • Demand
    • Chinese domestic versus international coking coal prices
    • Global and Chinese steel production
    • Steel production - others
    • Global and Chinese blast furnace iron production
    • Blast furnace iron production - others
  • Supply
    • Queensland monthly metallurgical exports
    • Potential shortfall in central European metallurgical coal supply (Mt)
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