Commodity market report

Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook May 2017: the end of the quarterly price settlement?

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Report summary

Metallurgical coal prices will continue falling to pre-cyclone levels. We forecast the benchmark price to drop to US$128/t for the Q4 2016. We believe that prices should return to marginal cost-type levels by 2018.

What's included

This report contains

Table of contents

    • Key market data
  • Prices
    • Australian supply not fully back to normal yet
    • QCoal and JFE Steel start construction work on Byerwen mine
    • Once again, high gas levels trim Appin’s expected output
    • Russia struggling to maintain coking coal exports
    • US longwall mines have strong Q1
    • Lower industrial output, rains, and inspections curbing Chines summer demand
    • China imports hit record high in April
    • New blast furnace, government actions and pre-monsoon buying boosts Indian demand
    • Brazil's Usiminas to restart No.1 blast furnace at Ipatinga complex
    • Ilva steel mill sale – ArcelorMittal selected as the preferred bidder ahead of JSW
    • April hot metal output is up 6% over the same month in 2016

Tables and charts

This report includes 7 images and tables including:


  • Prices: Image 1
  • Queensland metallurgical coal exports, Mt
  • Global and Chinese steel production, Mt
  • Steel production – other majors, Mt
  • Global and Chinese blast furnace iron production, Mt
  • Blast furnace iron production – other majors, Mt


  • Executive summary: Table 1

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