Commodity Market Report

Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook May 2018: Supply concerns push market higher

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Report summary

A standoff between buyers who felt comfortably supplied, and miners who could see the market tightening, kept prices flat for most of May. But with the typical June surge in Australian exports constrained by rail maintenance, and buyers looking for July coal deliveries, the price impasse looks to be breaking. Australia's rail dispute is likely to push prices up further during June - perhaps beyond US$200/t - and the increase will have repercussions for the rest of the year. Meanwhile, China's steel and coal restructure continues to underpin international prices, and the situation is unlikely to change anytime soon. Solid demand for iron, steel and coke globally, and stuttering coal supply growth, will keep prices well above marginal cost for the rest of the year and through 2019.    

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    cms metallurgical trade short term outlook.xls

    XLS 2.62 MB

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook May 2018: Supply concerns push market higher

    PDF 355.38 KB

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook May 2018: Supply concerns push market higher

    ZIP 1.84 MB

Table of contents

Tables and charts

This report includes 9 images and tables including:

Tables

  • Key Market data (selected)
  • Key market prices

Images

  • Key prices - history and quarterly forecasts (US$/t, nominal)
  • Global & Chinese steel production (Mt)
  • Steel production - other major producers (Mt)
  • Global & Chinese blast furnace Iron (Mt)
  • Blast furnace iron production - other major producers (Mt)
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Australian met coal exports 2015 - 2018

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