Commodity market report
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11 Pages

Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook November 2015

Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook November 2015

Report summary

Q1 2016 contract prices will be lower than those for Q4 2015. Buyers and sellers have started the talks at odds over the current level of HCC spot prices, unsurprisingly, given the considerable variation between major price indices. With the marginal cost of Australian supply sitting close to US$78/t at current exchange rates, we expect a reasonable price for LV HCC to be in the low to mid-US$80s/t range.  But the ultimate outcome will be determined by the Japanese mills' willingness to continue to pay a premium to spot prices.  We expect prices to increase in 2016 as supply exits the market and HCC demand grows in a number of countries, but the increases will be modest.  It will be late 2017 before a modicum of balance returns to the HCC trade.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook November 2015 PDF - 333.21 KB 11 Pages, 1 Tables, 8 Figures
  • CMS monthly metallurgical trade November.xls XLS - 1.72 MB


Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Metallurgical Coal Market Short Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the metallurgical coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
  • Supply
    • Chinese miners stretched but little sign of broad restructuring
    • Rail cost reductions in Inner Mongolia and Shandong exceptional cases
    • Queensland miners keep on keeping on
      • Queensland ports: metallurgical exports (Mt) - old
    • Australian and Canadian miners not immune from downturn
      • Cockatoo finally succumbs
      • Teck Coal forced to make further cuts
    • US supply will fall again in 2016
    • Asian Fluidity crisis from 2016?
  • Demand
    • Steel production costs have fallen dramatically
      • Global BOF steel production costs 2010 - 2015
    • Gloomy Indian coking coal production outlook could provide some upside for imports

In this report there are 9 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Key Market Data
  • Prices
    • Key Price Forecasts (US$/t FOB)
  • Supply
    • Supply: Image 1
    • Top 10 Asian mines ranked by Max fluidity 2016 (excl Russia)
  • Demand
    • Demand: Image 1
    • Global and Chinese steel production
    • Steel production - other major producers
    • Global and Chinese blast furnace iron production
    • Blast furnace iron production - other producers
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