Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook November 2017 - Demand strong, as China's winter "restriction season" arrives
China’s decision to require blast furnaces to run at under 50% utilization rates and lengthen coking times should lower the demand for coking coal through March. But, issues at Hay Point have lowered exports and Dalrymple Bay is doing maintenance. So, supply has tightened and the queue has grown to about 60 vessels. Prices will be supported as the ports work down that congestion. We forecast the 2018 Australian prices will be US$160/t and will lower to US$137/t as more supply enters the trade.