Commodity Market Report

Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook November 2017 - Demand strong, as China's winter "restriction season"  arrives

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30 November 2017

Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook November 2017 - Demand strong, as China's winter "restriction season"  arrives

Report summary

China’s decision to require blast furnaces to run at under 50% utilization rates and lengthen coking times should lower the demand for coking coal through March. But, issues at Hay Point have lowered exports and Dalrymple Bay is doing maintenance. So, supply has tightened and the queue has grown to about 60 vessels. Prices will be supported as the ports work down that congestion.  We forecast the 2018 Australian prices will be US$160/t and will lower to US$137/t as more supply enters the trade.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • The Queensland wet season has arrived bringing market concerns
    • Premium coals in high demand
    • Shipping disruptions at Hay Point/Dalrymple Bay limit coal availability
    • Chinese domestic supply could slow during winter
    • JFE settles early again at relatively low price
    • Prices should remain elevated over the marginal cost of production
    • Queensland shipments fall in October
    • Aurizon looking to by interest in WICET
    • Glencore opts to continue Tahmoor
    • BHP pushing for some output rise
    • Appin will return to operating two longwalls in late 2018
    • Cook Mine returning in 2018
    • Aquila Resources will develop Walton PCI deposit
    • Moatize continues to ramp up production
    • Corsa expanding met output
    • Warrior Met Coal continues to drive towards 7.2 Mtpa target
    • Canada’s newest mine runs into difficulties
    • Global economic outlook has improved
    • Induction furnace closures have increased domestic steel demand
    • Chinese winter coal demand should fall
    • Chinese import demand for high quality, low sulphur coal is holding up
    • Metinvest revamping a furnace at Azovstal
    • Steel and hot metal production has been strong

Tables and charts

This report includes 7 images and tables including:

  • Key market data (selected)
  • Key prices - history and quarterly forecasts (US$/t, nominal)
  • Queensland metallurgical coal exports, Mt
  • Demand: Image 1
  • Steel production - other majors, Mt
  • Demand: Image 3
  • Blast furnace iron production - other majors, Mt

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    cms metallurgical trade short term outlook November 2017.xls

    XLS 2.22 MB

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook November 2017 - Demand strong, as China's winter "restriction season" arrives

    PDF 436.10 KB

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook November 2017 - Demand strong, as China's winter "restriction season" arrives

    ZIP 1.74 MB

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