Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook November 2018: Prices maintain poise, despite the noise Report

Commodity Market Report 29 November 2018

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Report summary

For the third year in succession metallurgical coal prices have risen into the fourth quarter as China's safety and pollution focus, and Australia's own supply problems, tighten the market. Sentiment has weakened this month after China's curbs on coking coal imports, and anxiety over economic growth, but prices have so far held firm. Price falls in December look inevitable but we maintain a view that average benchmark HCC prices should stay above US$200/t through Q1. 2019 will see some further falls but Chinese annual contract prices, and fundamentally tight supply will minimise the risk of a major correction.

2019 Chinese term contract prices to be settled soon
No fireworks for PCI and SSCC
Southern Bowen Basin trip: Analysts find production positive, but costs increasing and transport still a problem
Fires temporarily close Blackwater rail line
More investment milestones in the metallurgical coal sector
Ramaco silo fails and pinches HV supply
Contura completes merger with Alpha
CONSOL plans new low-volatile mine in West Virginia
High prices encourage new prep plant builds in Pennsylvania
Chinese government speeds up investment to offset weak economic indicators
China import restrictions worsening but should be short-lived
Winter cuts have started but implementation still weaker than 2017
Possible Brexit outcomes could impact demand differently

Tables and charts

This report includes 6 images and tables including:

Key Prices - history and quarterly forecasts (US$/t, nominal)
Queensland ports: metallurgical coal exports (Mt)
Global and Chinese crude steel production (Mt)

Crude Steel production - other major producers
Global and Chinese blast furnace hot metal production (Mt)
Blast Furnace hot metal production - other major producers (Mt)

What's included

This report contains:

cms_metallurgical_trade_short_term_outlook_november_2018.xls

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Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook November 2018: Prices maintain poise, despite the noise

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Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook November 2018: Prices maintain poise, despite the noise

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