Commodity market report
| |
11 Pages

Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook October 2016

Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook October 2016

Report summary

Met coal prices continued on their seemingly inexorable rise in October, breaking the US$250/t mark in the last week. The month began with news of Grasstree's extended disruption and ended with a similar story at Appin area 9. China's 276 workday policy remains in place, and the NDRC has made no meaningful attempt to force an increase in Chinese coal production. Whilst demand in China has outperformed, supply constraints remain the key factor in the price spike, and there has been little to mitigate coal shortages this month. Infact, recent events have led us to forecast an increase in quarterly prices for Q1 2017, to US$210/t, before a combination of stagnant coal demand, and supply recovery, lead to a gradual decline in prices through 2017. 

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook October 2016 PDF - 362.28 KB 11 Pages, 1 Tables, 8 Figures
  • cms metallurgical trade short term outlook October.xls XLS - 1.97 MB


Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Metallurgical Coal Market Short Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the metallurgical coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
    • Key market data
  • Prices
    • Q4 contract prices finally agreed
    • Chinese coal price rises squeezing mill margins
    • International prices set to stay high in Q1 2017
    • PCI and SSCC prices will eventually benefit from higher coking coal prices
    • Prices on a knife-edge
  • Supply
    • Incentives to expand but near term options limited
    • Australian exports up but premium HCC is scarce
    • Patience required for rebirth of US export supply
    • Russian coking coal exports struggling
    • Mozambique restarts encouraging but expansion muted in 2017
  • Demand
    • China's steel and coke production holds up, whilst coal supply flounders
    • Steel and met coke import restrictions support Indian coal import demand

In this report there are 9 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Prices
    • Key metallurgical coal prices: history and forecast (US$/t)
  • Supply
    • Queensland ports:metallurgical exports (Mt)
    • US Hampton Roads metallurgical coal exports 2014 - 2016 (Mt)
  • Demand
    • Chinese metallurgical coal production and stocks
    • Global & Chinese steel production (Mt)
    • Steel production - other major producers
    • Global & China blast furnace iron production (Mt)
    • blast furnace iron production - Other major producers
Requester's name : .............
Department : .............
Authoriser's Name : .............
Authoriser's signature : .............
Date : .............
Cost Centre : .............

Questions about this report?

Frequently Asked Questions
  • Europe: +44 131 243 4699
  • Americas: +1 713 470 1900
  • Asia Pacific: +61 2 8224 8898
contact us

Why Wood Mackenzie?

Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk Analytics business, has been a trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's natural resources sector for more than 40 years, empowering clients to make better strategic decisions with objective analysis and advice.

We work across every sector of oil, gas, power, renewables, chemicals, metals and mining, covering more than 150 countries. Our proprietary data and models are at the core of everything we do, ensuring our independent asset and company valuations are thoroughly robust and that we offer an accurate forward-looking view of economic indicators such as market supply, demand and price trends.

Our 500+ analysts are based in the regions they cover, cultivating an unrivalled depth of understanding to help clients accurately identify new opportunities, define their strategy and improve business performance.

At every stage, our teams readily collaborate and share their insight to provide an integrated perspective across entire industries. It is this unique and rigorous analytical approach that ensures we are recognised as the industry standard by the world’s most innovative organisations.