Commodity market report
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11 Pages

Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook October 2016

Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook October 2016

Report summary

Met coal prices continued on their seemingly inexorable rise in October, breaking the US$250/t mark in the last week. The month began with news of Grasstree's extended disruption and ended with a similar story at Appin area 9. China's 276 workday policy remains in place, and the NDRC has made no meaningful attempt to force an increase in Chinese coal production. Whilst demand in China has outperformed, supply constraints remain the key factor in the price spike, and there has been little to mitigate coal shortages this month. Infact, recent events have led us to forecast an increase in quarterly prices for Q1 2017, to US$210/t, before a combination of stagnant coal demand, and supply recovery, lead to a gradual decline in prices through 2017. 

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook October 2016 PDF - 362.28 KB 11 Pages, 1 Tables, 8 Figures
  • cms metallurgical trade short term outlook October.xls XLS - 1.97 MB


Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Metallurgical Coal Market Short Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the metallurgical coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
    • Key market data
  • Prices
    • Q4 contract prices finally agreed
    • Chinese coal price rises squeezing mill margins
    • International prices set to stay high in Q1 2017
    • PCI and SSCC prices will eventually benefit from higher coking coal prices
    • Prices on a knife-edge
  • Supply
    • Incentives to expand but near term options limited
    • Australian exports up but premium HCC is scarce
    • Patience required for rebirth of US export supply
    • Russian coking coal exports struggling
    • Mozambique restarts encouraging but expansion muted in 2017
  • Demand
    • China's steel and coke production holds up, whilst coal supply flounders
    • Steel and met coke import restrictions support Indian coal import demand

In this report there are 9 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Prices
    • Key metallurgical coal prices: history and forecast (US$/t)
  • Supply
    • Queensland ports:metallurgical exports (Mt)
    • US Hampton Roads metallurgical coal exports 2014 - 2016 (Mt)
  • Demand
    • Chinese metallurgical coal production and stocks
    • Global & Chinese steel production (Mt)
    • Steel production - other major producers
    • Global & China blast furnace iron production (Mt)
    • blast furnace iron production - Other major producers
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