Commodity Market Report

Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook October 2017: prices resting on China

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31 October 2017

Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook October 2017: prices resting on China

Report summary

October started with the implementation of the "2+26" policy that requires steel and coke plants to reduce production in order to control pollution levels during the peak heating season in China. The restrictions will last until March next year. What does this mean for the seaborne metallurgical coal markets? 

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Seesaw game on prices continues amid China uncertainty
    • No new policy announcement after the 19th party Congress in China
    • Price outlook depends on supply recovery in China and Australia
    • Australia performing well
    • Industrial disputes remain a risk to Australian production
    • Major miners cautious despite excellent financial performance
    • Production from non-majors will be an important source of new coal
    • US exports hit high water mark for year
    • China's 2+26 policy is adding a huge uncertainty to the market
    • M&A interest growing in India's steel sector
    • Indonesia steel demand is growing fast

Tables and charts

This report includes 9 images and tables including:

  • Key market data (selected)
  • Demand reduction due to 2+26 policy implementation, Mt
  • Forward price assessment done in September and October for HCCA Branded coals, US$/t
  • Key prices - history and forecast, US$/t nominal
  • Queensland metallurgical coal exports, Mt
  • Global and Chinese steel production, Mt
  • Steel production - other majors, Mt
  • Global and Chinese blast furnace iron production, Mt
  • Blast furnace iron production - other majors, Mt

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    cms metallurgical trade short term outlook october 2017.xls

    XLS 2.19 MB

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook October 2017: prices resting on China

    PDF 332.12 KB

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook October 2017: prices resting on China

    ZIP 1.60 MB

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