Commodity market report

Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook September 2017: Prices start to fall

Loading current market price

Get this report

Loading current market price

Get this report as part of a subscription

Enquire about subscriptions

Already have subscription? Sign In

Further information

Contact us

Submit your details to receive further information about this report.

  • An error has occurred while getting captcha image
For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.
 

Report summary

Metallurgical coal prices started to fall this month in anticipation of Chinese restrictions on hot metal and coke output. Australian LV spot prices, dropped over US$20/t from mid-month. Most Chinese blast furnaces will have to cut output to under 50% of capacity during winter. Queensland coal exports were strong in August, but will be limited as the year closes due to rail and port maintenance. Spot prices should fall to US$165/t by the end of the year – driving the Q4 contract to US$183/t.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook September 2017: Prices start to fall

    PDF 360.12 KB

  • Document

    cms metallurgical trade short term outlook september 2017.xls

    XLS 2.16 MB

  • Document

    Global metallurgical coal short-term outlook September 2017: Prices start to fall

    ZIP 1.62 MB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Index-pricing leads NSSMC to US$170/t for Q3 contracts
    • Second tier HCC prices fall, as demand for this coal weakens
    • Differential between PCI/SSCC to HCC strengthens in Q3
    • JFE does well with early Q3 settlements on PCI and SSCC
    • Marketplace is getting ready for hedging options to manage volatility but, a long way to go
    • Prices should continue the decline that started in mid-September
    • Queensland metallurgical coal exports
    • Appin mine slowly returns, but at lower output level
    • Baralaba plans to add LV PCI later this year
    • QCoal and JFE developing the Byerwen mine
    • Peabody sells Burton mine to New Hope
    • AMCI will reopen Broadlea in 2017
    • Donkin mine brings on first coking coal on Canada’s east coast
    • Teck production to remain steady the next few years
    • Canada’s Ridley export rise has mirrored the market changes
    • US exports remain strong, but should decline in Q4
    • Weakening US dollar lessens revenues for other local currencies
    • China’s Q4 slowdown still the biggest demand driver
    • JFE Steel idles blast furnace, but coal impact should be minimal
    • ArcelorMittal relines Bremen blast furnace
    • Japan’s coke imports have fallen with high prices
    • ThysseenKrupp and Tata Steel unite in Europe

Tables and charts

This report includes 7 images and tables including:

Images

  • Key prices – history and forecast, US$/t nominal
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Global and Chinese steel production, Mt
  • Steel production – other majors, Mt
  • Global and Chinese blast furnace iron production, Mt
  • Blast furnace iron production – other majors, Mt

Tables

  • Key market data

Questions about this report?

    • Europe:
      +44 131 243 4699
    • Americas:
      +1 713 470 1900
    • Asia Pacific:
      +61 2 8224 8898