Global demand for thermal coal will grow by 4.5 Bt to a total of 11.9 Bt owing to electrification and industrial expansion in Asia and the significant cost advantage maintained by coal over other fuels. There will be a growing need for imports. Seaborne thermal coal demand in Asia will grow by 1 Bt over the forecast period to reach 2.0 Bt. Oversupply will continue until supply and demand finally balance in 2019/2020. Prices are at multi-year lows and recovery will be an extended process.
This report includes 30 file(s)
Global thermal coal long-term outlook H1 2014 PDF - 2.77 MB 106 Pages, 22 Tables, 91 Figures
CMS Thermal Region Americas Brazil data July.xls XLS - 270.00 KB
CMS Thermal Region Americas Chile data July.xls XLS - 1.03 MB
CMS Thermal Region Americas Mexico data July.xls XLS - 2.31 MB
CMS Thermal Region Asia China data July.xls XLS - 808.00 KB
CMS Thermal Region Asia Hong Kong data July.xls XLS - 310.50 KB
CMS Thermal Region Asia India data July.xls XLS - 313.00 KB
CMS Thermal Region Asia Japan data July.xls XLS - 1.04 MB
CMS Thermal Region Asia Malaysia data July.xls XLS - 1.54 MB
CMS Thermal Region Asia Philippines data July.xls XLS - 1.52 MB
CMS Thermal Region Asia South Korea data July.xls XLS - 527.50 KB
CMS Thermal Region Asia Taiwan data July.xls XLS - 428.50 KB
CMS Thermal Region Asia Thailand data July.xls XLS - 1.63 MB
CMS Thermal Region Asia Vietnam data July.xls XLS - 1.88 MB
CMS Thermal Region EMEARC Belgium data July.xls XLS - 256.50 KB
CMS Thermal Region EMEARC France data July.xls XLS - 3.30 MB
CMS Thermal Region EMEARC Germany data July.xls XLS - 3.10 MB
CMS Thermal Region EMEARC Italy data July.xls XLS - 3.74 MB
CMS Thermal Region EMEARC Netherlands data July.xls XLS - 1.36 MB
CMS Thermal Region EMEARC Spain data July.xls XLS - 2.31 MB
CMS Thermal Region EMEARC Turkey data July.xls XLS - 2.03 MB
CMS Thermal Region EMEARC United Kingdom data July.xls XLS - 3.17 MB
CMS Thermal Coal Ocean freight and trade data July.xls XLS - 3.26 MB
Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.
This Thermal Coal Market Long Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.
Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the thermal coal markets.
Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.
From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.
Australia – seaborne thermal exports by demand country (Mt)
Colombia supply outlook
Colombia – seaborne thermal exports by demand country (Mt)
Indonesia supply outlook
Indonesian thermal coal production breached the half billion tonne mark in 2013 reaching 501 Mt, an impressive 47 Mt year-on-year increase, of which 396 Mt were exported. Major producers, including Bumi, Adaro and Banpu, ramped up production as they sought to reduce their average fixed cost. Major producers accounted for close to one-half the production increase in 2013. Despite the clampdown on small and illegal mines early last year, these mines still managed to increase their output by 13 Mt. In 2014, we expect production growth to slow to 38 Mt, with total thermal coal production reaching 534 Mt.
Russia supply outlook
South Africa supply outlook
US supply outlook
Relentless Asian demand will drive a growing seaborne market
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Commodity market report | Jul 2014
Global thermal coal long-term outlook H1 2014
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