Commodity market report

Global thermal coal long-term outlook H1 2015

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Report summary

Coal consumption is under pressure. In developing economies coal demand continues to grow but more slowly than in the past. In China environmental policy domestic protectionism weaker economic growth and structural change in the economy caused the arrival of "peak coal" last year in coastal regions. Meanwhile western economies continue to transition away from coal. Seaborne providers are adapting. Low oil prices mining productivity improvements and FOREX changes are helping miners adapt.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    Global thermal coal long term outlook H1 2015 key themes April.pdf

    PDF 1.08 MB

  • Document

    CMS Thermal Coal Demand overview data June.xls

    XLS 1.87 MB

  • Document

    CMS Thermal Coal Prices data June.xls

    XLS 2.16 MB

  • Document

    CMS Thermal Coal Supply overview data June.xls

    XLS 3.41 MB

  • Document

    CMS Thermal Coal Additional data June.xls

    XLS 4.76 MB

  • Document

    CMS Thermal Coal Country Plant data June.xls

    XLS 1.11 MB

  • Document

    Global thermal coal long-term outlook H1 2015

    PDF 3.20 MB

  • Document

    Global thermal coal long-term outlook H1 2015

    ZIP 12.18 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 1.39 MB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 92.53 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 201.14 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 261.82 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 315.02 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 260.06 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 93.81 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 105.46 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 2.07 MB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Economic outlook
  • Prices
  • Demand
  • Supply
  • Infrastructure
  • Trade
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Risks and uncertainties

Tables and charts

This report includes 62 images and tables including:

Images

  • Risk assessment H1 2015
  • Risk assessment H2 2014
  • Thermal coal spot price versus 90th percentile cost (US$/t, nominal)
  • Seaborne demand versus supply capacity by mine status (Mt)
  • Thermal coal price forecast, FOB port (US$/t, real 2015)
  • Thermal coal price forecast, delivered (US$/t, real 2015)
  • FOB Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg NAR market price comparison, H2 2014 vs .H1 2015
  • Marginal cost change in key bituminous Australian coal thermal supply (6,000 kcal/kg NAR)
  • Seaborne thermal coal demand forecast in Asia (Mt)
  • MENA seaborne thermal demand change (Mt)
  • EU seaborne thermal demand change (Mt)
  • Seaborne thermal coal export cash cost supply curve (2015, energy adjusted, US$/t)
  • Seaborne thermal coal export cash cost supply curve (2035, energy adjusted, US$/t)
  • Risk Assessment: H1 2015
  • JPU-type coal market statistics (Mt and %)
  • Marginal cost change in key bituminous Australian coal thermal supply (6,000 kcal/kg NAR)
  • FOB Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg NAR market price comparison, H2 2014 vs. H1 2015
  • Seaborne thermal coal demand forecast in Asia (Mt)
  • Growth in coal and non-coal-fired generation capacity in Asia (GW)
  • Share of coal in the electricity generation in the Pacific basin (%)
  • Coal plant net additions/retirements for EMEARC: 2008-2035 (GW)
  • MENA seaborne thermal demand change (Mt)
  • EU seaborne thermal demand change (Mt)
  • Seaborne thermal coal export cash cost supply curve (2015, energy adjusted, US$/t)
  • Seaborne thermal coal export cash cost supply curve (2035, energy adjusted, US$/t)
  • Baltic Dry Bulk Index history
  • Net increase in vessel fleet (Mdwt)
  • Bunker price in Northern Europe vs Brent oil price
  • Bunker price in Singapore vs Dubai oil price
  • Time Charter rates vs bunker prices in the Pacific region
  • Baltic Capesize Index
  • Dry bulk trade net Increase (Mt) and 4TC Average Baltic Cape size Index
  • Dry bulk carriers’ fleet distribution by year of build (MDWT)
  • Breakeven costs for select Australian thermal projects at 15% IRR (6,000 kcal/kg NAR basis)
  • China total thermal demand change (Mt)
  • China seaborne thermal demand change (Mt)
  • Thermal coal spot price versus 90th percentile cost (US$/t, nominal)
  • Seaborne demand versus supply capacity by mine status (Mt)
  • Seaborne demand “looseness” versus FOB Newcastle price
  • Breakeven costs for select Australian thermal projects at 15% IRR (6,000 kcal/kg NAR basis)
  • Thermal coal price forecast, FOB port (US$/t, real 2015)
  • Thermal coal price forecast, delivered (US$/t, real 2015)
  • China GDP vs coal-fired generation growth
  • India GDP vs coal-fired generation growth
  • Growth in nuclear power generation in Asia (TWh)
  • Key seaborne thermal suppliers in Asia (Mt)
  • Seaborne thermal demand by rank in the Pacific basin (Mt)
  • China total thermal demand change (Mt)
  • China seaborne thermal demand change (Mt)
  • EMEARC seaborne thermal coal demand by exporter (Mt)
  • European carbon allowance prices – H1 2015 vs H2 2014 outlook
  • Coal-gas parity costs in power – coal price cases (US$/t)
  • Change in the supply curve into ARA since the end of 2014
  • Coal trade among export and import regions (Mt)
  • Coal trade between export and import regions by coal rank (Mt)

Tables

  • Global thermal production and demand data by country (Mt)
  • Exchange rate assumptions, selected currencies (local per US$)
  • GDP assumptions, selected countries (% growth, year-on-year)
  • Industrial production assumptions, selected countries (% growth, year-on-year)
  • Consumption tax on coal into power (US$/t)
  • Global thermal supply-demand balance
  • Global thermal production and demand data by country (Mt)

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