The seaborne thermal coal market is set to contract for the second successive year. Further downside is not expected though. Costs have swung much lower, with tailwinds of FX support and oil price assistance allied to production efficiencies and steep cuts in labour/other variable costs (where possible). Thermal coal is still a highly competitive source for electricity generation in sizeable markets that matter for thermal trade. The losses have mainly come from outward policy (China, India) but also in smaller markets where carbon price support cut into the cost advantage coal has long had (the UK). The seaborne market does eventually grow, but not back above 2014 levels until the early 2020 timeframe. The only newer supply projects of note come from the Galilee Basin in Australia, but even they are fraught with uncertainty (financial, environmental, risk appetite).