Commodity market report
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17 Pages

Global thermal coal long-term outlook H1 2017: Capacity-oriented policy steps drive seaborne markets

Global thermal coal long-term outlook H1 2017: Capacity-oriented policy steps drive seaborne markets

Report summary

As emphasis on coal alternatives grows in China, it is apparent that the height of thermal coal demand, supply and imports is past us, having peaked in 2013. China continues to struggle with structural overcapacity in its power and industrial sectors. However, as imported thermal coal demand from China declines overtime, India's demand grows to overtake China as the largest thermal coal importing country in the world. 

What's included?

This report includes 3 file(s)

  • Global thermal coal long-term outlook H1 2017: Capacity-oriented policy steps drive seaborne markets PDF - 539.94 KB 17 Pages, 0 Tables, 18 Figures
  • WM CMS Thermal H1 2017 Slidepack July 2017.pdf PDF - 2.99 MB
  • cms thermal coal prices data june.xls XLS - 3.39 MB


Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Thermal Coal Market Long Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the thermal coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
    • Phase I (2017-2022): the doldrums
    • Price ranges: what about risk?
  • Demand
    • Global thermal coal demand has peaked in 2013 and is unlikely to change course
    • Seaborne demand is a derivative of government policy in key Asian nations
      • China
      • India
      • Japan, Korea, and Taiwan
      • South East Asia
      • Europe and the Americas
  • Supply
    • Variable import demand requires flexible supply: overcapacity is here to stay
    • Mine costs slowly rising overtime
    • Country-level supply review: Australia wins hands down
  • Infrastructure
    • Global port loading capacity adequate through 2026, then new regional capacity needed
    • Dry bulk seaborne trade growth will flatten for five years threatening the recovery in ocean freight rates
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • Short-term risks
    • Mid-term risks
    • Long-term risks

In this report there are 18 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
    • Thermal coal spot price vs. 90th percentile cost
    • Chinese demand for imports remain strong in 2017
    • China coal price protection scheme...
    • …and what it means to Newcastle
    • Seaborne demand vs. supply status (Mt)
    • FOB thermal coal price forecast (real 2017 US$/t)
    • Newcastle market - high/low ranges (real 2017, US$/t)
    • ARA - high/low ranges (real 2017, US$/t)
  • Demand
    • Global thermal coal demand for power (Mt)
    • Global thermal coal demand for non-power (Mt)
    • Seaborne thermal coal demand by region (Mt)
    • Seaborne thermal coal demand change by region (Mt)
  • Supply
    • Seaborne export cost curve 2017 (energy adjusted)
    • Seaborne export cost curve 2035 (energy adjusted)
    • Seaborne thermal coal supply by country (Mt)
    • Cumulative change in seaborne thermal coal supply by year from 2017 levels (Mt)
  • Infrastructure
    • Dry bulk Seaborne trade (Mt)
    • Ocean freight rate cost assumptions for main ocean freight routes (US$/t)
  • Risks and uncertainties
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