Commodity market report

Global thermal coal long-term outlook H1 2017: Capacity-oriented policy steps drive seaborne markets

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As emphasis on coal alternatives grows in China, it is apparent that the height of thermal coal demand, supply and imports is past us, having peaked in 2013. China continues to struggle with structural overcapacity in its power and industrial sectors. However, as imported thermal coal demand from China declines overtime, India's demand grows to overtake China as the largest thermal coal importing country in the world.

What's included

This report contains 18 images and 17 pages

  • Document

    WM CMS Thermal H1 2017 Slidepack July 2017.pdf

    PDF 3.13 MB

  • Document

    cms thermal coal prices data june.xls

    XLS 3.39 MB

  • Document

    Global thermal coal long-term outlook H1 2017: Capacity-oriented policy steps drive seaborne markets

    ZIP 4.45 MB

  • Document

    Global thermal coal long-term outlook H1 2017: Capacity-oriented policy steps drive seaborne markets

    PDF 539.94 KB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 81.89 KB

  • Document


    PDF 126.76 KB

  • Document


    PDF 130.12 KB

  • Document


    PDF 211.19 KB

  • Document


    PDF 133.46 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 88.78 KB

Why buy this report?

This report can help you make informed strategic planning and investment decisions by allowing you to:

  • Identify global trade patterns in thermal coal
  • Understand changes affecting the thermal coal market
  • Gain a thorough understanding of coal market dynamics, including revenue and demand
  • Get detailed analysis on the growth of seaborne thermal coal trade across Asia

Our objective analysis is based on proprietary data from regional experts who work across sectors to generate cross-commodity, macroeconomic market view for every topic they explore.

This report is based on data and insights from coal analysts local to the markets they study. It includes:

  • Thermal coal demand trends across North America, China and India
  • Visual analysis of price, supply, demand and risk outlooks
  • Detailed analysis on seaborne demand in Asian nations
  • Long-term outlook for thermal coal from H1 2017

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Phase I (2017-2022): the doldrums
    • Price ranges: what about risk?
    • Variable import demand requires flexible supply: overcapacity is here to stay
    • Mine costs slowly rising overtime
    • Country-level supply review: Australia wins hands down
    • Global port loading capacity adequate through 2026, then new regional capacity needed
    • Dry bulk seaborne trade growth will flatten for five years threatening the recovery in ocean freight rates
    • Short-term risks
    • Mid-term risks
    • Long-term risks

Tables and charts

This report includes 18 images and tables including:


  • Thermal coal spot price vs. 90th percentile cost
  • Chinese demand for imports remain strong in 2017
  • China coal price protection scheme...
  • …and what it means to Newcastle
  • Seaborne demand vs. supply status (Mt)
  • FOB thermal coal price forecast (real 2017 US$/t)
  • Newcastle market - high/low ranges (real 2017, US$/t)
  • ARA - high/low ranges (real 2017, US$/t)
  • Global thermal coal demand for power (Mt)
  • Global thermal coal demand for non-power (Mt)
  • Seaborne thermal coal demand by region (Mt)
  • Seaborne thermal coal demand change by region (Mt)
  • Seaborne export cost curve 2017 (energy adjusted)
  • Seaborne export cost curve 2035 (energy adjusted)
  • Seaborne thermal coal supply by country (Mt)
  • Cumulative change in seaborne thermal coal supply by year from 2017 levels (Mt)
  • Dry bulk Seaborne trade (Mt)
  • Ocean freight rate cost assumptions for main ocean freight routes (US$/t)

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