Global thermal coal long-term outlook H1 2018: navigating through the energy transition
Current markets will eventually cool, but the timing is highly dependent on the pace of reform and growth in China and India. Absent satisfactory reform in China and India, their domestic supply competitiveness will be as, if not more important, than demand. The long-term outlook for thermal coal demand remains challenging, though. We expect three regionally-distinct, non-uniform and often conflicting trends to drive thermal coal: the growing demand for electric power, a desire to reduce air-pollution and lower greenhouse gas emissions, and the cost of consumption alternatives to coal.