Report summary
Table of contents
- Executive summary
-
Prices
- Phase I: gradual return to marginal costs (2018 – 2021)
- Risked price ranges
-
Demand
-
Global thermal coal demand will continue to decline from its 2013 peak
- China
- India
- Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan
- Southeast Asia
- EMEARC and the Americas
-
Global thermal coal demand will continue to decline from its 2013 peak
-
Supply
- Variable import demand requires flexible supply: overcapacity is here to stay
- Mining costs slowly rising
-
Infrastructure
- Global port loading capacity adequate until 2027, then new regional capacity needed
- Dry bulk seaborne trade growth has balanced the market, however, risks remain as new environmental restrictions are enforced
- Risks and uncertainties
Tables and charts
This report includes 25 images and tables including:
- Phase I marker coal price forecast, real 2018 US$/t
- 2018-2019 global seaborne trade balance
- Thermal spot price versus 90th percentile cost
- Phase II marker coal price forecast, real 2018 US$/t
- Seaborne demand versus supply status (Mt)
- Supply gap vs FOB Newcastle market price (Mt, US$/t)
- Thermal coal price forecast, FOB (US$/t, real 2018)
- Thermal spot price forecast, delivered (US$/t, real 2018)
- Phase III marker coal price forecast, real 2018 US$/t
- Benchmark thermal coal incentive price at 15% IRR (US$, FOB Newcastle, real 2018)
- Phase IV marker coal price forecast, real 2018 US$/t
- High low price ranges: FOB Newcastle
- High low price ranges: CFR ARA
- Global thermal coal demand for power (Mt)
- Global thermal coal demand for non-power (Mt)
- Seaborne thermal coal demand by region (Mt)
- Seaborne thermal coal demand change by region (Mt)
- Seaborne export cost curve 2018 (energy adjusted)
- Seaborne export cost curve 2040 (energy adjusted)
- Seaborne thermal coal supply by country (Mt)
- Cumulative change in seaborne thermal coal supply by year from 2018 levels (Mt)
- Baltic Index from 1984
- Baltic Index from 2013
- Dry bulk Seaborne trade (Mt)
- Ocean freight rates for main ocean freight routes (Real 2018 US $)
What's included
This report contains:
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