Commodity market report

Global thermal coal long-term outlook H2 2014

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Report summary

Global thermal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties driven by weakening global economic growth substantial overhang in mine and export capacity low oil prices volatile currencies in key supplier countries and ever tightening environmental policies. Coal remains a dominant fuel in Asia and absolute coal demand continues to grow to fulfil electrification potential in Asia. Seaborne thermal coal demand will rise from 936 Mt in 2014 to 1 860 Mt by 2035.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    CMS Thermal Coal Demand overview data Dec.xls

    XLS 2.04 MB

  • Document

    CMS Thermal Coal Supply overview data Dec.xls

    XLS 7.28 MB

  • Document

    CMS Thermal Coal Prices data Dec.xls

    XLS 695.50 KB

  • Document

    CMS Thermal Coal Ocean freight and trade data Dec.xls

    XLS 3.18 MB

  • Document

    CMS Thermal Coal Infrastructure overview data Dec.xls

    XLS 2.53 MB

  • Document

    CMS Thermal Coal SDBalance Risks data Dec.xls

    XLS 8.43 MB

  • Document

    CMS Thermal Coal Economic assumptions data Dec.xls

    XLS 175.00 KB

  • Document

    CMS Thermal Region Americas Brazil data Dec.xls

    XLS 274.50 KB

  • Document

    CMS Thermal Region Americas Chile data Dec.xls

    XLS 1.04 MB

  • Document

    CMS Thermal Region Americas Mexico data Dec.xls

    XLS 2.31 MB

  • Document

    CMS Thermal Region Asia China data Dec.xls

    XLS 814.50 KB

  • Document

    CMS Thermal Region Asia Hong Kong data Dec.xls

    XLS 311.50 KB

  • Document

    CMS Thermal Region Asia India data Dec.xls

    XLS 292.00 KB

  • Document

    CMS Thermal Region Asia Japan data Dec.xls

    XLS 1.04 MB

  • Document

    CMS Thermal Region Asia Malaysia data Dec.xls

    XLS 1.53 MB

  • Document

    CMS Thermal Region Asia Philippines data Dec.xls

    XLS 1.52 MB

  • Document

    CMS Thermal Region Asia South Korea data Dec.xls

    XLS 527.50 KB

  • Document

    CMS Thermal Region Asia Taiwan data Dec.xls

    XLS 434.00 KB

  • Document

    CMS Thermal Region Asia Thailand data Dec.xls

    XLS 1.63 MB

  • Document

    CMS Thermal Region Asia Vietnam data Dec.xls

    XLS 1.88 MB

  • Document

    CMS Thermal Region EMEARC Belgium data Dec.xls

    XLS 255.00 KB

  • Document

    CMS Thermal Region EMEARC France data Dec.xls

    XLS 3.30 MB

  • Document

    CMS Thermal Region EMEARC Germany data Dec.xls

    XLS 3.11 MB

  • Document

    CMS Thermal Region EMEARC Italy data Dec.xls

    XLS 3.75 MB

  • Document

    CMS Thermal Region EMEARC Netherlands data Dec.xls

    XLS 1.37 MB

  • Document

    CMS Thermal Region EMEARC Spain data Dec.xls

    XLS 2.31 MB

  • Document

    CMS Thermal Region EMEARC Turkey data Dec.xls

    XLS 2.04 MB

  • Document

    CMS Thermal Region EMEARC United Kingdom data Dec.xls

    XLS 3.17 MB

  • Document

    Global thermal coal long-term outlook H2 2014

    PDF 3.06 MB

  • Document

    Global thermal coal long-term outlook H2 2014

    ZIP 48.46 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 1.23 MB

  • Document

    Economic outlook

    PDF 92.00 KB

  • Document

    Supply

    PDF 540.49 KB

  • Document

    Demand

    PDF 436.15 KB

  • Document

    Infrastructure

    PDF 265.30 KB

  • Document

    Supply-demand balances

    PDF 103.37 KB

  • Document

    Trade

    PDF 92.82 KB

  • Document

    Prices

    PDF 175.91 KB

  • Document

    Risks and uncertainties

    PDF 1.56 MB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Economic outlook
  • Supply
  • Demand
  • Infrastructure
  • Supply-demand balances
  • Trade
  • Prices
  • Risks and uncertainties

Tables and charts

This report includes 121 images and tables including:

Images

  • Seaborne demand vs supply status (Mt)
  • Thermal coal price forecast, FOB port (US$/t, real 2014)
  • Risks assessment: H2 2014
  • Seaborne thermal coal exports by country (Mt)
  • Supply: Image 2
  • Seaborne thermal coal export cash cost supply curve (2014, energy adjusted, US$/t)
  • Seaborne thermal coal export cash cost supply curve (2035, US$/t)
  • Seaborne thermal coal export cash cost supply curve (2035, energy adjusted, US$/t)
  • Global seaborne exports change by coal rank between 2014 - 2035 (Mt)
  • Australia – seaborne thermal exports by demand country (Mt)
  • Colombia – seaborne thermal exports by demand country (Mt)
  • Indonesia – seaborne thermal exports by demand country (Mt)
  • Western Russia ports - seaborne thermal coal exports by demand country (Mt)
  • Eastern Russia ports – seaborne thermal exports by demand country (Mt)
  • South Africa - seaborne thermal coal exports by demand country (Mt)
  • US - seaborne thermal exports by demand country (Mt)
  • Seaborne thermal coal demand forecast in the Pacific basin (Mt, %)
  • Growth in coal and non-coal-fired generation capacity in the Pacific basin (GW)
  • Share of coal in electricity generation in the Pacific basin (%)
  • Americas seaborne thermal coal demand by county (Mt)
  • Dry bulk trade net Increase (Mt) and 4TC Average Baltic Cape size Index
  • Dry Bulk Carriers’ fleet distribution by year of build (MDWT)
  • Seaborne thermal marginal cost versus Newcastle spot price (US$/t, nominal)
  • Seaborne demand vs. supply by mine status (Mt)
  • Seaborne demand “looseness” versus FOB Newcastle market price
  • Breakeven costs for select Australian thermal projects at different IRRs (6000 kcal NAR basis)
  • Thermal coal price forecast, FOB port (US$/t, real 2014)
  • JPU-type coal supply/demand balance
  • Global demand change, H2 2014 vs. H1 2014
  • Export supply change, H2 2014 vs. H1 2014
  • Marginal costs in low sulphur high energy Australian thermal supply (6000 kcal NAR)
  • FOB Newcastle market price comparison H2 2014 vs. H1 2014
  • Risk assessment: H1 2014
  • Risk Assessment: H2 2014
  • Executive summary: Image 3
  • Executive summary: Image 4
  • Executive summary: Image 5
  • Thermal seaborne exports by country (Mt)
  • Executive summary: Image 7
  • Seaborne thermal coal export cash cost supply curve (2014, energy adjusted, US$/t)
  • Seaborne thermal coal export cash cost supply curve (2035, energy adjusted, US$/t)
  • Marginal costs in low sulphur high energy Australian thermal supply (6,000 kcal/kg NAR)
  • Demand: Image 1
  • Demand: Image 2
  • Share of thermal coal demand from domestic production by region (%)
  • Demand: Image 7
  • Demand: Image 8
  • Demand: Image 9
  • Demand: Image 10
  • Demand: Image 11
  • Demand: Image 12
  • Demand: Image 13
  • Demand: Image 14
  • Demand: Image 15
  • Demand: Image 16
  • Demand: Image 17
  • Demand: Image 18
  • Demand: Image 19
  • Demand: Image 20
  • Demand: Image 21
  • Demand: Image 22
  • Demand: Image 23
  • Demand: Image 24
  • Demand: Image 25
  • Demand: Image 26
  • Coal-fired generation capacity in SEA (GW)
  • Seaborne thermal imports by country and rank (Mt)
  • Coal plant net additions/retirements for EMEARC: 2008-2035 (GW)
  • EMEARC seaborne thermal coal demand by exporter (Mt)
  • Germany - power generation by fuel type (TWh)
  • Germany - power generation capacity by fuel type (GW)
  • Germany - thermal coal consumption by market sector (Mt)
  • Germany - thermal seaborne imports by country and rank (Mt)
  • Turkey - power generation by fuel type (TWh)
  • Turkey - power generation capacity by fuel type (GW)
  • Turkey - thermal coal consumption by market sector (Mt)
  • Turkey - thermal seaborne imports by country and rank (Mt)
  • Trade outlook for key EMEARC importers (Mt)
  • Infrastructure: Image 3
  • Infrastructure: Image 4
  • Infrastructure: Image 5
  • Abbot Point port capacity history and forecast (Mt)
  • Infrastructure: Image 7
  • Infrastructure: Image 8
  • Infrastructure: Image 9
  • Infrastructure: Image 10
  • Port Kembla port capacity history and forecast (Mt)
  • Infrastructure: Image 12
  • Infrastructure: Image 13
  • Indonesia coal loading capacity history and forecast (Mt)
  • Russia port capacity history and forecast (Mt)
  • Russia West port capacity history and forecast (Mt)
  • Russia East port capacity history and forecast (Mt)
  • South Africa port capacity history and forecast (Mt)
  • Mozambique Port capacity forecast (Mt)
  • US port capacity by port (Mt)
  • US Gulf, New Orleans and others forecast (Mt)
  • US North West port capacity forecast (Mt)
  • US South West capacity forecast (Mt)
  • Mexico West port (Project)
  • Prices: Image 6

Tables

  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Seaborne thermal coal demand by region and by country (Mt)
  • Major seaborne thermal trade flows (Mt)
  • Economic outlook: Table 1
  • Economic outlook: Table 2
  • Economic outlook: Table 3
  • Supply: Table 1
  • Supply: Table 2
  • Global thermal coal supply demand balance (Mt)
  • Global thermal coal production and demand data by country (Mt)
  • Executive summary: Table 4
  • Executive summary: Table 5
  • Demand: Table 1
  • Demand: Table 2
  • Demand: Table 3
  • Demand: Table 4
  • Demand: Table 5
  • Demand: Table 6
  • Demand: Table 7
  • Turkey - thermal coal supply/demand balance (Mt)

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