Commodity market report
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111 Pages

Global thermal coal long-term outlook H2 2014


Global thermal coal long-term outlook H2 2014

Report summary

Global thermal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties driven by weakening global economic growth, substantial overhang in mine and export capacity, low oil prices, volatile currencies in key supplier countries, and ever-tightening environmental policies. Coal remains a dominant fuel in Asia and absolute coal demand continues to grow to fulfil electrification potential in Asia. Seaborne thermal coal demand will rise from 936 Mt in 2014 to 1,860 Mt by 2035.

What's included?

This report includes 29 file(s)

  • Global thermal coal long-term outlook H2 2014 PDF - 3.07 MB 111 Pages, 20 Tables, 101 Figures
  • CMS Thermal Coal Demand overview data Dec.xls XLS - 2.04 MB
  • CMS Thermal Coal Supply overview data Dec.xls XLS - 7.28 MB
  • CMS Thermal Coal Prices data Dec.xls XLS - 695.50 KB
  • CMS Thermal Coal Ocean freight and trade data Dec.xls XLS - 3.18 MB
  • CMS Thermal Coal Infrastructure overview data Dec.xls XLS - 2.53 MB
  • CMS Thermal Coal SDBalance Risks data Dec.xls XLS - 8.43 MB
  • CMS Thermal Coal Economic assumptions data Dec.xls XLS - 175.00 KB
  • CMS Thermal Region Americas Brazil data Dec.xls XLS - 274.50 KB
  • CMS Thermal Region Americas Chile data Dec.xls XLS - 1.04 MB
  • CMS Thermal Region Americas Mexico data Dec.xls XLS - 2.31 MB
  • CMS Thermal Region Asia China data Dec.xls XLS - 814.50 KB
  • CMS Thermal Region Asia Hong Kong data Dec.xls XLS - 311.50 KB
  • CMS Thermal Region Asia India data Dec.xls XLS - 292.00 KB
  • CMS Thermal Region Asia Japan data Dec.xls XLS - 1.04 MB
  • CMS Thermal Region Asia Malaysia data Dec.xls XLS - 1.53 MB
  • CMS Thermal Region Asia Philippines data Dec.xls XLS - 1.52 MB
  • CMS Thermal Region Asia South Korea data Dec.xls XLS - 527.50 KB
  • CMS Thermal Region Asia Taiwan data Dec.xls XLS - 434.00 KB
  • CMS Thermal Region Asia Thailand data Dec.xls XLS - 1.63 MB
  • CMS Thermal Region Asia Vietnam data Dec.xls XLS - 1.88 MB
  • CMS Thermal Region EMEARC Belgium data Dec.xls XLS - 255.00 KB
  • CMS Thermal Region EMEARC France data Dec.xls XLS - 3.30 MB
  • CMS Thermal Region EMEARC Germany data Dec.xls XLS - 3.11 MB
  • CMS Thermal Region EMEARC Italy data Dec.xls XLS - 3.75 MB
  • CMS Thermal Region EMEARC Netherlands data Dec.xls XLS - 1.37 MB
  • CMS Thermal Region EMEARC Spain data Dec.xls XLS - 2.31 MB
  • CMS Thermal Region EMEARC Turkey data Dec.xls XLS - 2.04 MB
  • CMS Thermal Region EMEARC United Kingdom data Dec.xls XLS - 3.17 MB

Description

Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Thermal Coal Market Long Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the thermal coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
    • Prices are captive to overcapacity causing us to lower our forecast
      • Thermal coal price forecast, delivered (US$/t, real 2014)
    • Long-term Asian growth will keep trade flow centred on the Pacific
    • Risks and uncertainties centre around demand in China and the intersection of global energy, politics and environmental policy
    • Changes from the previous outlook
      • Global change in demand, H2 2014 vs H1 2014, Mt
  • Economic outlook
  • Supply
    • Summary: export supply growth will be focused in Australia, Indonesia and, much later, in the US
    • Australia supply outlook
    • Colombia supply outlook
    • Indonesia thermal coal supply
    • Russia supply outlook
    • South Africa supply outlook
    • US supply outlook
  • Demand
    • Demand summary
      • Still strong: but a growing desire to reduce pollution in Asia could temper long-term demand
    • Pacific demand summary
      • China
      • China - thermal coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
      • China - power generation by fuel type (TWh)
      • China - power generation capacity by fuel type (GW)
      • China - thermal coal consumption by market sector (Mt)
      • China - thermal seaborne imports by country and rank (Mt)
      • India - thermal coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
      • India - power generation by fuel type (TWh)
      • India - power generation capacity by fuel type (GW)
      • India - thermal coal consumption by market sector (Mt)
      • India - thermal seaborne imports by country and rank (Mt)
      • Japan - thermal coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
      • Japan - power generation by fuel type (TWh)
      • Japan
      • - power generation capacity by fuel type (GW)
      • Japan
      • - thermal coal consumption by market sector (Mt)
      • Japan
      • - thermal seaborne imports by country and rank (Mt)
      • South Korea - thermal coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
      • South Korea
      • - power generation by fuel type (TWh)
      • South Korea
      • - power generation capacity by fuel type (GW)
      • South Korea
      • - thermal coal consumption by market sector (Mt)
      • South Korea
      • - thermal seaborne imports by country and rank (Mt)
      • Taiwan - thermal coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
      • Taiwan
      • - power generation by fuel type (TWh)
      • Taiwan
      • - power generation capacity by fuel type (GW)
      • Taiwan
      • - thermal coal consumption by market sector (Mt)
      • Taiwan
      • - thermal seaborne imports by country and rank (Mt)
    • EMEARC demand outlook
      • Phase 1: Pre-Industrial Emissions Directive (IED), 2014-2017
      • Phase 2: Industrial Emissions Directive (IED) and beyond, 2018-2035
      • Germany demand outlook
      • Turkey demand outlook
      • Other EMEARC demand outlook
    • Americas demand outlook
  • Infrastructure
    • Summary
    • Ocean freight outlook
      • Net Increases in vessel fleet (MDWT)
      • Recent Baltic index
      • Freight assumptions for main ocean freight routes (US$/t – Real US$ 2014)
    • Infrastructure outlook at major suppliers
      • Australia
      • Port of Brisbane
      • The Port of Gladstone
      • Gladstone port capacity forecast (Mt)
      • Hay Point port capacity history and forecast (Mt)
      • Newcastle port capacity history and forecast (Mt)
      • Canada
      • Canada west port capacity history and forecast (Mt)
      • Colombia
      • Colombia Atlantic port capacity history and forecast (Mt)
      • Indonesia
      • Russia
      • South Africa
      • Mozambique
      • Unites States
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Global summary
  • Trade
    • Trade will continue to be dominated by Asian suppliers serving Asian demand
  • Prices
    • Summary
    • Phase 1: 2014-2021 Global overcapacity restrains price growth through the mid-term
    • Phase 2: 2022-2035 Stronger Asian demand absorbs overcapacity, stimulates development of new coal supply and triggers price increases to incentive levels
      • Thermal coal price forecast, delivered (US$/t, real 2014)
    • Term contracts pricing – is CFR Japan an option or will the JPU premium continue?
    • Changes from prior outlook
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • Summary
      • Interventionism: Further Chinese coal demand and import weakness?
      • APPCAP evolution: upside potential in Chinese power coal demand?
      • “Go West”: saturation of coastal China demand and domestic supply growth meets demand
      • Falling oil prices: when and how will they impact coal markets?
      • Exchange rate depreciations: Russian rouble?
      • European energy policy: will reducing reliance on Russian gas lead to a watering down of the IED/ETS?
      • Indonesian exports: controlling illegal mining and capping exports via dedicated ports
      • US West Coast terminals: is 2025 the new 2020?
      • Global coalescing of carbon policy: Paris 2015?
      • The spirit of Modi: India coal and power sector reforms?
      • Alternative power supply sources and technology development

In this report there are 121 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Table 1
    • Seaborne thermal coal demand by region and by country (Mt)
    • Seaborne demand vs supply status (Mt)
    • Thermal coal price forecast, FOB port (US$/t, real 2014)
    • Executive summary: Image 3
    • Executive summary: Image 4
    • Executive summary: Image 5
    • Thermal seaborne exports by country (Mt)
    • Executive summary: Image 7
    • Seaborne thermal coal export cash cost supply curve (2014, energy adjusted, US$/t)
    • Seaborne thermal coal export cash cost supply curve (2035, energy adjusted, US$/t)
    • Major seaborne thermal trade flows (Mt)
    • Risks assessment: H2 2014
    • Executive summary: Table 4
    • Executive summary: Table 5
    • Marginal costs in low sulphur high energy Australian thermal supply (6,000 kcal/kg NAR)
  • Economic outlook
    • Economic outlook: Table 1
    • Economic outlook: Table 2
    • Economic outlook: Table 3
  • Supply
    • Seaborne thermal coal exports by country (Mt)
    • Supply: Image 2
    • Seaborne thermal coal export cash cost supply curve (2014, energy adjusted, US$/t)
    • Supply: Table 1
    • Seaborne thermal coal export cash cost supply curve (2035, US$/t)
    • Seaborne thermal coal export cash cost supply curve (2035, energy adjusted, US$/t)
    • Supply: Table 2
    • Global seaborne exports change by coal rank between 2014 - 2035 (Mt)
    • Australia – seaborne thermal exports by demand country (Mt)
    • Colombia – seaborne thermal exports by demand country (Mt)
    • Indonesia – seaborne thermal exports by demand country (Mt)
    • Western Russia ports - seaborne thermal coal exports by demand country (Mt)
    • Eastern Russia ports – seaborne thermal exports by demand country (Mt)
    • South Africa - seaborne thermal coal exports by demand country (Mt)
    • US - seaborne thermal exports by demand country (Mt)
  • Demand
    • Demand: Image 1
    • Demand: Image 2
    • Share of thermal coal demand from domestic production by region (%)
    • Demand: Table 1
    • Seaborne thermal coal demand forecast in the Pacific basin (Mt, %)
    • Growth in coal and non-coal-fired generation capacity in the Pacific basin (GW)
    • Share of coal in electricity generation in the Pacific basin (%)
    • Demand: Table 2
    • Demand: Image 7
    • Demand: Image 8
    • Demand: Image 9
    • Demand: Image 10
    • Demand: Table 3
    • Demand: Image 11
    • Demand: Image 12
    • Demand: Image 13
    • Demand: Image 14
    • Demand: Table 4
    • Demand: Image 15
    • Demand: Image 16
    • Demand: Image 17
    • Demand: Image 18
    • Demand: Table 5
    • Demand: Image 19
    • Demand: Image 20
    • Demand: Image 21
    • Demand: Image 22
    • Demand: Table 6
    • Demand: Image 23
    • Demand: Image 24
    • Demand: Image 25
    • Demand: Image 26
    • Coal-fired generation capacity in SEA (GW)
    • Seaborne thermal imports by country and rank (Mt)
    • Coal plant net additions/retirements for EMEARC: 2008-2035 (GW)
    • EMEARC seaborne thermal coal demand by exporter (Mt)
    • Demand: Table 7
    • Germany - power generation by fuel type (TWh)
    • Germany - power generation capacity by fuel type (GW)
    • Germany - thermal coal consumption by market sector (Mt)
    • Germany - thermal seaborne imports by country and rank (Mt)
    • Turkey - thermal coal supply/demand balance (Mt)
    • Turkey - power generation by fuel type (TWh)
    • Turkey - power generation capacity by fuel type (GW)
    • Turkey - thermal coal consumption by market sector (Mt)
    • Turkey - thermal seaborne imports by country and rank (Mt)
    • Trade outlook for key EMEARC importers (Mt)
    • Americas seaborne thermal coal demand by county (Mt)
  • Infrastructure
    • Dry bulk trade net Increase (Mt) and 4TC Average Baltic Cape size Index
    • Dry Bulk Carriers’ fleet distribution by year of build (MDWT)
    • Infrastructure: Image 3
    • Infrastructure: Image 4
    • Infrastructure: Image 5
    • Abbot Point port capacity history and forecast (Mt)
    • Infrastructure: Image 7
    • Infrastructure: Image 8
    • Infrastructure: Image 9
    • Infrastructure: Image 10
    • Port Kembla port capacity history and forecast (Mt)
    • Infrastructure: Image 12
    • Infrastructure: Image 13
    • Indonesia coal loading capacity history and forecast (Mt)
    • Russia port capacity history and forecast (Mt)
    • Russia West port capacity history and forecast (Mt)
    • Russia East port capacity history and forecast (Mt)
    • South Africa port capacity history and forecast (Mt)
    • Mozambique Port capacity forecast (Mt)
    • US port capacity by port (Mt)
    • US Gulf, New Orleans and others forecast (Mt)
    • US North West port capacity forecast (Mt)
    • US South West capacity forecast (Mt)
    • Mexico West port (Project)
  • Supply-demand balances
    • Global thermal coal supply demand balance (Mt)
    • Global thermal coal production and demand data by country (Mt)
  • Trade
  • Prices
    • Seaborne thermal marginal cost versus Newcastle spot price (US$/t, nominal)
    • Seaborne demand vs. supply by mine status (Mt)
    • Seaborne demand “looseness” versus FOB Newcastle market price
    • Breakeven costs for select Australian thermal projects at different IRRs (6000 kcal NAR basis)
    • Thermal coal price forecast, FOB port (US$/t, real 2014)
    • Prices: Image 6
    • JPU-type coal supply/demand balance
    • Global demand change, H2 2014 vs. H1 2014
    • Export supply change, H2 2014 vs. H1 2014
    • Marginal costs in low sulphur high energy Australian thermal supply (6000 kcal NAR)
    • FOB Newcastle market price comparison H2 2014 vs. H1 2014
  • Risks and uncertainties
    • Risk assessment: H1 2014
    • Risk Assessment: H2 2014
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