Commodity market report
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15 Pages

Global thermal coal long-term outlook H2 2015

Global thermal coal long-term outlook H2 2015

Report summary

Coal market competition is fierce and suppliers are aggressively cutting price to protect share. Chronic excess capacity will not be absorbed without pronounced rationalization. Price support requires higher demand and marginal costs but both are still falling. A sluggish price recovery will be delayed until 2017. The winds of change are blowing, though, and sentiment about coal has turned particularly negative in advance of the 2015 Paris Climate Conference. Risks are decidedly to the downside.

What's included?

This report includes 3 file(s)

  • Global thermal coal long-term outlook H2 2015 PDF - 394.75 KB 15 Pages, 0 Tables, 18 Figures
  • CMS Thermal Coal Prices data November.xls XLS - 2.18 MB
  • CMS Thermal Coal LTO 2015H2.pdf PDF - 1.57 MB


Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Thermal Coal Market Long Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the thermal coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
    • Global demand will fall 1.9% in 2015 but seaborne demand will be down 5.0%
    • Supply: more rationalisation needed, overcapacity endemic but growth still targeted
    • Prices: lower costs and capacity overhang keeping prices lower for longer
      • Short-term (2015-17): marginal costs to fall further in 2016, driving prices lower
      • Mid-term (2018-25): steady price growth following cost inflation and reductions in oversupply
      • Long-term (2026-35): China demand and new project development lift prices to incentive levels
        • Thermal coal price forecast, delivered (US$/t, real 2015)
        • Risks H2 2015

In this report there are 18 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
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    • Thermal coal price forecast, FOB (US$/t, real 2015)
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