Coal market competition is fierce and suppliers are aggressively cutting price to protect share. Chronic excess capacity will not be absorbed without pronounced rationalization. Price support requires higher demand and marginal costs but both are still falling. A sluggish price recovery will be delayed until 2017. The winds of change are blowing, though, and sentiment about coal has turned particularly negative in advance of the 2015 Paris Climate Conference. Risks are decidedly to the downside.