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Global thermal coal long-term outlook H2 2015

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24 November 2015

Global thermal coal long-term outlook H2 2015

Report summary

Coal market competition is fierce and suppliers are aggressively cutting price to protect share. Chronic excess capacity will not be absorbed without pronounced rationalization. Price support requires higher demand and marginal costs but both are still falling. A sluggish price recovery will be delayed until 2017. The winds of change are blowing, though, and sentiment about coal has turned particularly negative in advance of the 2015 Paris Climate Conference. Risks are decidedly to the downside.

Table of contents

    • Global demand will fall 1.9% in 2015 but seaborne demand will be down 5.0%
    • Supply: more rationalisation needed, overcapacity endemic but growth still targeted
    • Prices: lower costs and capacity overhang keeping prices lower for longer
      • Short-term (2015-17): marginal costs to fall further in 2016, driving prices lower
      • Mid-term (2018-25): steady price growth following cost inflation and reductions in oversupply
      • Long-term (2026-35): China demand and new project development lift prices to incentive levels
        • Thermal coal price forecast, delivered (US$/t, real 2015)
        • Risks H2 2015

Tables and charts

This report includes 18 images and tables including:

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  • Thermal coal price forecast, FOB (US$/t, real 2015)
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What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    CMS Thermal Coal Prices data November.xls

    XLS 2.18 MB

  • Document

    CMS Thermal Coal LTO 2015H2.pdf

    PDF 1.57 MB

  • Document

    Global thermal coal long-term outlook H2 2015

    PDF 394.75 KB

  • Document

    Global thermal coal long-term outlook H2 2015

    ZIP 2.37 MB

  • Document

    Executive summary

    PDF 234.82 KB

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