Commodity Market Report
Global thermal coal long-term outlook H2 2020: What's the post-pandemic prognosis?
Report summary
Finally, the world can begin to see a path out of the pandemic crisis. Vaccination programs are already underway in various countries and there is a better sense for when we can expect life to get back to normal or close to it. However, there is still speculation on what the economic recovery will look like. How effective will stimulus programs be? How long will it take for economies to work through debt spending? Are there structural shifts in our way of life – office space and work-from-home? And, most importantly for this report, how will all of this impact seaborne thermal coal demand? Read further in our latest Global Thermal Coal Long-term Outlook for details on: • How the pandemic changed our forecast • Our newly added forecast for 2040-2050 • Where the growth markets are for thermal coal in a carbon-constrained world • Pricing for the next 30 years including high and low scenarios
Table of contents
- Near-term risk to our forecast:
- Long-term risk to our forecast:
- Producers grappling with coronavirus demand impacts and China import controls
- Mining costs likely to continue to decrease
-
Country-level supply review: a decline in Indonesian supply provides upside for Australia and Russia
- Australia
- Indonesia
- Colombia
- Russia
- USA
- Global thermal coal demand growth continues through 2027
-
Seaborne demand is influenced by government policies in key Asian nations
- China
- India
- Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan
- Japan
- Southeast Asia
- EMEARC and the Americas
-
The path to price recovery
- Phase 1: Recovery to marginal costs (2020 – 2024)
- Gas price recovery
- China's domestic coal prices netback capturing Australia coal ban risk
- Prices below marginal cost levels amid demand recovery are unsustainable
- Phase 2: Supply shortage will call for new probable projects (2025 – 2028)
- Phase 3: Higher cost projects required as operating capacity fall accelerates (2029 – 2036)
- Phase 4: Project requirement plateaus until major reserve depletion (2037 – 2041)
- Phase 5: Renewables and carbon policy risks weigh on prices (2042 – 2050)
Tables and charts
This report includes 25 images and tables including:
- Seaborne thermal cost curve 2020 (energy-adjusted)
- Seaborne thermal cost curve 2050 (energy-adjusted)
- Global thermal coal demand for power
- Global thermal coal demand for non-power
- Seaborne thermal coal demand by region
- Seaborne thermal coal demand cumulative change by region
- Seaborne thermal coal supply by country
- Thermal seaborne exports change by country 2020-2050
- Japan’s 2030 generation share target vs WM forecast
- South Korea’s 9th Basic plan 2034 targets vs WM forecast
- Taiwan’s 2025 generation share target vs WM forecast
- Phase 1 marker coal price forecast, real 2020 US$/t
- ARA vs TTF gas price forecast (real 2020)
- Japan and South Korea coal-to-gas switching incentives
- Calculation of China domestic FOB prices netback to Newcastle benchmark
- Newcastle price vs percentile costs for 6322kcal GAR coal
- Indonesia price vs percentile costs for 4200kcal GAR coal
- Phase 2 marker coal price forecast, real 2020 US$/t
- Seaborne demand versus supply status (Mt)
- Thermal coal price forecast, FOB (US$/t, real 2020)
- Supply gap vs FOB Newcastle market price (Mt, US$/t)
- Benchmark thermal coal seaborne export incentive prices
- Phase 3 marker coal price forecast, real 2020 US$/t
- Phase 4 marker coal price forecast, real 2020 US$/t
- Phase 5 marker coal price forecast, real 2020 US$/t
What's included
This report contains:
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