Commodity market report
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11 Pages

Global thermal coal short-term outlook April 2016


Global thermal coal short-term outlook April 2016

Report summary

Pricing dynamics for thermal coal are not being gathered up in the frenzy seen by other commodities in China since March. Whereas iron ore and coking coal have US$70/t and US$100/t levels, thermal coal is not partying like its 2012 again. Supply, demand and pricing are still being driven by a combination of: a change to the price setting process in Asia where Tohoku Electric and Glencore settled a nuanced "annual" contract at US$61.60/t; Chinese overcapacity and protectionism and how it may now impact export markets; falling demand in Europe; and, ability for suppliers to find new markets. Witness Colombian export shipments to Asia that already top 4 Mt this year.

In this monthly report, we are pleased to announce the launch of global monthly supply-demand balance for all seaborne coal consuming countries. We capture monthly time series, from 2014, forecast out to end-2017. We welcome all feedback and hope clients find it additive to the service.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global thermal coal short-term outlook April 2016 PDF - 351.08 KB 11 Pages, 1 Tables, 3 Figures
  • wm coal monthly thermal trade April 2016.xls XLS - 1.17 MB

Description

Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Thermal Coal Market Short Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the thermal coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
    • Glencore and Tohoku settle thermal contract price at US$61.60/t
    • Cold weather in Europe shifts prices marginally
    • Launch of monthly SD balance: what does this tell us about pricing shape?
  • Demand
    • Chinese demand: any strength in March will sap in later months
    • Japanese power market liberalises: now the hard part starts
    • Coal India's price cuts: much ado about nothing
  • Supply
    • Chinese supply: progress on reduction plans but higher exports a probability
    • Colombian exports to Asia: 4 Mt through April
    • Australian supply round-up
    • Polish coal industry restructuring progress?

In this report there are 4 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Key market data* table
  • Prices
    • Global balance versus price change
    • Key prices: history and forecast, nominal US$/t
  • Demand
    • China price arbitrage
  • Supply
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