Commodity Market Report

Global thermal coal short-term outlook April 2018: China import curbs change price direction

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01 May 2018

Global thermal coal short-term outlook April 2018: China import curbs change price direction

Report summary

A flurry of trading activity was triggered in China after a tier-2 port import ban was implemented. The concern was over the potential for stricter rules to follow but not solely from the tier-2 ban. Market participants have experience now with handling tier-2 import bans, so the size of the risk was better understood. However, concerns of further restrictions being implemented triggered a rush to secure tonnages ahead of stricter rules. Buying activity helped to reverse the downward trend in pricing in China and in international markets.

Table of contents

    • Key market prices
  • Prices
    • China: tier-2 port ban trading frenzy staves off further import restrictions, for now
    • India: missed domestic production targets could help imports
    • Japan: 825-MW nuclear restart delayed until 2021
    • Pakistan: adds a new 660-MW plant
    • UK: goes without coal generation for 76 hours
    • Egypt: new cement plant opens
    • Australia: brief disruptions from Cyclone Iris
    • Indonesia: producers look to capture more exports due to domestic price cap
    • Russia: rail repairs expected to slow shipments
    • South Africa: South32 spins off South African operations after charter change

Tables and charts

This report includes 4 images and tables including:

  • Key market data
  • ARA and Richards Bay 6,000 kcal price differentials to Newcastle 6,000 kcal
  • Key prices – history and forecast (nominal, US$/t)
  • Executive summary: Table 2

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global thermal coal short-term outlook April 2018: China import curbs change price direction

    PDF 226.36 KB

  • Document

    Global thermal coal short-term outlook April 2018: China import curbs change price direction

    ZIP 2.11 MB

  • Document

    wm coal monthly thermal trade April 2018.xls

    XLS 2.63 MB

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