Commodity market report
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11 Pages

Global thermal coal short-term outlook August 2016


Global thermal coal short-term outlook August 2016

Report summary

Demand is growing somewhat in the Pacific, thanks to events in northeast Asia, but supply of suitable quality coal is somewhat stressed. The resulting market tightness has been sufficient to lift prices, although it’ s increasingly likely that near-term prices may be peaking. Inclement weather, de-capacity efforts and working-day limits at coal mines in China are restricting domestic supply to coastal markets, encouraging more imports and lifting both Chinese domestic and international coal prices.

In the Atlantic, prices have risen despite declining regional demand. Driving this paradox are limited deliveries to Europe and the Mediterranean of 6,000 kcal/kg NAR South African coal as well as the diversion of some Colombian coal from its usual European markets into northeast Asia.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global thermal coal short-term outlook August 2016 PDF - 369.73 KB 11 Pages, 3 Tables, 4 Figures
  • wm coal monthly thermal trade August 2016 final.xls XLS - 1.53 MB

Description

Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Thermal Coal Market Short Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the thermal coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
    • Rising power generation costs in China may stimulate relaxation in working day rules and limit further price increases
  • Demand
    • Events in China continue to help shape the Pacific market
      • Plant retirements, inventories, nuclear generation import taxes and carbon rules impact coal demand in the Atlantic
  • Supply
    • China government holding firm to coal capacity and production reduction goals
    • Is the widening gap between the price of semi-soft and thermal coals encouraging a shift to met coal?
    • North American coal miners continue to feel the impacts of regulation, weaker demand
    • Colombia reaches agreement with FARC rebels as local disputes take center stage

In this report there are 7 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Key market data tables
  • Prices
    • Key prices: history and forecast, nominal US$/t
  • Demand
    • Supply-demand summary by region (Mt)
    • Supply-demand summary by region (Mt)
    • Seaborne Pacific demand for thermal coal by country (Mt)
    • Seaborne Atlantic demand for thermal coal by country (Mt)
  • Supply
    • Seaborne supply of thermal coal by country (Mt)
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