Commodity market report
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12 Pages

Global thermal coal short-term outlook December 2015

Global thermal coal short-term outlook December 2015

Report summary

The seaborne thermal trade is set to shrink, for the first time since 2008, by 50 Mt this year. Chinese demand is down 60 Mt y-o-y. India provided 20 Mt growth in imports in the first half of 2015 but slowed down considerably in Q3. What is the outlook for Supply, Demand and Prices for 2016? 

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global thermal coal short-term outlook December 2015 PDF - 468.75 KB 12 Pages, 2 Tables, 6 Figures
  • wm coal monthly thermal trade december final.xls XLS - 1018.00 KB


Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Thermal Coal Market Short Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the thermal coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
    • Will US$50/t thermal coal be the new norm in 2016, or will it be lower?
  • Demand
    • 2015 scorecard - everyone loses?
    • Are Chinese utilities' coal purchasing patterns changing?
    • How serious is the problem of ash disposal in Japan?
    • Atlantic market - can supply be assured in 2016 at US$45/t ARA?
  • Supply
    • Major miners announce cutbacks to respond to lower prices, but will it be enough?
    • Indonesia - what to expect from the revised Mining Law

In this report there are 8 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Key market data
  • Prices
    • Seaborne thermal coal operating margin, US$/t
    • Key thermal prices - history and forecast, nominal US$/t
  • Demand
    • 2015 supply/demand balance (Mt)
    • China thermal coal price arbitrage
    • Japan imports of less than 8% ash thermal coal (Mt)
    • 2016 delivered cost curve to Europe
  • Supply
    • Supply: Table 1
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We work across every sector of oil, gas, power, renewables, chemicals, metals and mining, covering more than 150 countries. Our proprietary data and models are at the core of everything we do, ensuring our independent asset and company valuations are thoroughly robust and that we offer an accurate forward-looking view of economic indicators such as market supply, demand and price trends.

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