Commodity Market Report

Global thermal coal short-term outlook December 2017 - Riding the winter rally

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02 January 2018

Global thermal coal short-term outlook December 2017 - Riding the winter rally

Report summary

Seaborne prices rallied in December since China’s switching from coal to clean energy in this cold winter was bogged down by gas supply disruption, while India's petcoke ban boosted US high energy exports. We expect strong sentiment towards near-term supply risk will support FOB Newcastle prices to stay high in the next couple of months. Risks emerge after Chinese New Year when China domestic supply makes a come back. 

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Major swing factors for seaborne prices in 2018
    • Key prices - history and forecast (nominal, US$/t)
    • China: quality restriction rumour presents a downside risk for low CV coal
    • India: imports well supported by non-power demand and petcoke policies
    • Japan: delays in nuclear restarts spread
    • The Philippines: new coal import tax won't have much impact on imports
    • Supply upside risk ahead for Australia; US gains from India's petcoke ban

Tables and charts

This report includes 8 images and tables including:

  • Key market data
  • Prices: Table 1
  • Prices: Image 1
  • Price arbitrage between domestic and imported coal (US$/t)
  • CIL raw coal production (Mt)
  • India coal stocks at power plants (days burn)
  • Australia seaborne thermal coal exports vs potential export availability
  • Potential export availability changes vs current (Q4 2017 dataset)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    wm coal monthly thermal trade December 2017.xls

    XLS 2.37 MB

  • Document

    Global thermal coal short-term outlook December 2017 - Riding the winter rally

    PDF 362.78 KB

  • Document

    Global thermal coal short-term outlook December 2017 - Riding the winter rally

    ZIP 2.13 MB

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