Commodity Market Report

Global thermal coal short-term outlook December 2018: elevated prices and risks to persist

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26 December 2018

Global thermal coal short-term outlook December 2018: elevated prices and risks to persist

Report summary

2018 is coming to an end. It has been a tumultuous year and commodity markets faced increased demand uncertainty and price volatility. Supply continue to face challenges due to limited investment in the sector since the last cycle. In this monthly report, we review which markets increased demand for thermal coal imports and where it fell. How did Chinese import control policies impacted the balance and price formation.

Table of contents

  • Win some, lose some
  • Near-term outlook
    • China: import controls driving market crazy
    • China: support required next year to tackle economic slowdown
    • India: imports strengthen
    • Other Asia: will growth outshine China and India?
    • Japan cancels new coal-fired power project
    • Europe
    • Glencore consolidates its position in thermal coal trade, Mitsubishi confirms exit
    • Adani’s Carmichael project in the Galilee basin: so near and yet so far
    • Mt Pleasant project ready to export thermal coal
    • Will new rules divert exports towards domestic markets?
  • Russia plans to raise rail tariff in 2019
  • Colombia

Tables and charts

This report includes 3 images and tables including:

  • Market discounts (energy adjusted) between Newcastle benchmark and off-spec coals, US$/t
  • Key prices - history and forecast, nominal, US$/t
  • 2018 supply-demand balance, Mt

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global thermal coal short-term outlook December 2018: elevated prices and risks to persist

    ZIP 1.17 MB

  • Document

    Global thermal coal short-term outlook December 2018: elevated prices and risks to persist

    ZIP 1.17 MB

  • Document

    wm_coal_montly_thermal_trade_Dec_2018.xlsx

    XLSX 476.33 KB

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