Commodity market report
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10 Pages

Global thermal coal short-term outlook February 2016

Global thermal coal short-term outlook February 2016

Report summary

The start of 2016 doesn’t spell well for thermal coal prices which have already fallen 10% from the average prices achieved in December last year. And, the sharp US$20/bbl drop in oil prices since early December suggests that costs are likely to fall further this year and prices will have to reflect that. 

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global thermal coal short-term outlook February 2016 PDF - 355.80 KB 10 Pages, 4 Tables, 5 Figures
  • wm coal monthly thermal trade February 2016.xls XLS - 1.21 MB


Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Thermal Coal Market Short Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the thermal coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
    • Is there room for thermal coal prices to continue falling?
  • Demand
    • China power demand is expected to contract in 2016
    • South Korea and India raise tax on coal consumption
    • Coal demand in Europe will continue deteriorating amid the implementation of the Industrial Emissions Directive
  • Supply
    • China government reveals a plan to reduce coal and steel production capacity
    • Colombia coal supply is expected to growth in 2016

In this report there are 9 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Key market data
  • Prices
    • globalCoal price history vs Brent oil price
    • Index of exchange rate (to the US$) for major producers and China, Jan 1 2015 = 1.0
    • China thermal coal price arbitrage window US$/t
    • Key thermal coal prices: history and forecast, US$/t
  • Demand
    • Year-on-year power demand and growth
    • 2016 European coal plant retirements MW
  • Supply
    • 2015 Colombia Coal exports - Mt
    • 2016 Outlook for Colombia Coal exports - Mt
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