Commodity market report

Global thermal coal short-term outlook February 2017: China's 276-day policy uncertainty is supporting prices

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Report summary

The Pacific basin supply demand balance indicates that price decline should appear in April as seasonal Chinese demand declines and the supply restrictions in Indonesia recede. Upward price pressure is expected to emerge in May and last through end of July. Our balance assumes that Colombian producers will continue delivering coal to supply Asia in the same proportions seen during 2016. The Atlantic basin supply demand balance indicates that there will be sufficient coal available during the second quarter confirming our downtrend price forecast. ARA coal prices will continue declining during the year reaching US$70/t by August 2017 then stabilizing at this level. By the end of 2018 the ARA price is forecasted to reach US$68/t The Newcastle 6 000 kcal/kg NAR spot coal is expected to fall from the US$83/t level of today to US$72/t by the end of 2017.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    wm coal monthly thermal trade February 2017 v2.xls

    XLS 2.07 MB

  • Document

    Global thermal coal short-term outlook February 2017:China's 276-day policy uncertainty is supporting prices

    PDF 439.77 KB

  • Document

    Global thermal coal short-term outlook February 2017:China's 276-day policy uncertainty is supporting prices

    ZIP 1.88 MB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
  • Demand
  • Supply

Tables and charts

This report includes 8 images and tables including:

Images

  • Seaborne supply and demand balance
  • Australian thermal export production by company
  • Prices: Image 1
  • Pacific Supply - Demand balance (Mt)
  • Prices: Image 3
  • Prices: Image 4
  • Prices: Image 5

Tables

  • Executive summary: Table 1

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