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Global thermal coal short-term outlook February 2018: US$100 coal a new normal?

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28 February 2018

Global thermal coal short-term outlook February 2018: US$100 coal a new normal?

Report summary

Thermal Coal prices have remained high in the Pacific market despite the reduced trading activity during the week-long Spring Festival holiday in China. Participants are awaiting what emerges from the ‘Two Sessions’ meeting of the Chinese Communist Party next week. That would essentially set the scene for domestic supply growth and spot price formation. Newcastle coal price index is expected to decline through the end of April slowly. Japanese contract negotiations are set to start soon and, given the current price level, we forecast JPU price to be set at higher rates than the previous contract. Spreads between Newcastle and ARA price are at high level which will provide the opportunity for Colombian coal to be sold to Pacific demand.

Table of contents

    • Key market data
    • Atlantic basin prices
    • China coal demand slow after Long-week Holidays
    • India demand
    • JPU contract negotiation – to go spot or contract?
    • German coalition leaves the fate of coal in the hand of a special committee
      • Strong renewable and hydro drive coal burn down
    • Turkey: importers asking the government to relax sulphur limits on imported coals
    • A railroad spat with regulator to affect railing capacity in Queensland
    • Will Galilee Basin rail financing difficulties open the door for Glencore and the Surat Basin?
    • New Hope's New Acland in a new regulation environment
    • India is opening up the coal mining sector to private sector
    • Freezing conditions continue at Russian railroads and ports
    • South Africa mining in wait to see mode, with new president’s reform of the controversial Mining Charter bill
    • South32 ‘s South African coal assets spun off into a standalone business unit
    • Is Colombian supply growth facing head winds?
      • Colombian coal exports - Mt
    • Sluggish US coal demand, resurgent coal exports
      • Northern Appalachia netback prices into ARA
    • Indonesia’s proposed restriction of foreign vessels caused a roar in the coal and shipping industries

Tables and charts

This report includes 7 images and tables including:

  • Price differential FOB Newcastle vs. ARA US$/t
  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Key prices - history and forecast (nominal, US$/t)
  • Historical Apr/Mar contract price trends, US$/t
  • Turkey Coal imports history Mt
  • Supply: Image 1
  • Supply: Image 2

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    wm coal monthly thermal trade February 2018.xls

    XLS 2.45 MB

  • Document

    Global thermal coal short-term outlook February 2018: US$100 coal a new normal?

    PDF 377.43 KB

  • Document

    Global thermal coal short-term outlook February 2018: US$100 coal a new normal?

    ZIP 2.17 MB

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