Commodity market report
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8 Pages

Global thermal coal short-term outlook January 2016

Global thermal coal short-term outlook January 2016

Report summary

The start of 2016 doesn’t spell well for thermal coal prices which have already fallen 10% from the average prices achieved in December last year. And, the sharp US$20/bbl drop in oil prices since early December suggests that costs are likely to fall further this year and prices will have to reflect that. 

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global thermal coal short-term outlook January 2016 PDF - 323.33 KB 8 Pages, 1 Tables, 5 Figures
  • wm coal monthly thermal trade january final.xls XLS - 1.12 MB


Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Thermal Coal Market Short Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the thermal coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
    • Will thermal coal prices bottom in 2016?
    • What is the scene for JPU April 2016 thermal contracts?
  • Demand
    • China imported 143 Mt in 2015: what is the outlook for 2016?
    • Is Coal India Limited facing a problem of plenty?
    • Coal-fired power capacity additions in South Korea, Vietnam and the Philippines
  • Supply
    • Why did Indonesian coal exports take a hit in 2015?

In this report there are 6 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Key market data
  • Prices
    • China thermal coal price arbitrage at different RMB levels
    • Ocean freight rates on key routes, US$/t
    • Key thermal coal prices: history and forecast, US$/t
  • Demand
    • Coal-fired power capacity additions in Asia Pacific
  • Supply
    • Asia Pacific annual demand change by key supplier countries, Mt
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Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk Analytics business, has been a trusted source of commercial intelligence for the world's natural resources sector for more than 40 years, empowering clients to make better strategic decisions with objective analysis and advice.

We work across every sector of oil, gas, power, renewables, chemicals, metals and mining, covering more than 150 countries. Our proprietary data and models are at the core of everything we do, ensuring our independent asset and company valuations are thoroughly robust and that we offer an accurate forward-looking view of economic indicators such as market supply, demand and price trends.

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At every stage, our teams readily collaborate and share their insight to provide an integrated perspective across entire industries. It is this unique and rigorous analytical approach that ensures we are recognised as the industry standard by the world’s most innovative organisations.