The price of Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg NAR spot coal needed less than six months to grow from about US$50/t to a peak price of US$109/t. But what goes up must come down and, we forecast, prices will find a new much lower base in just 12 to 18 months. The cooling off has been triggered by the same factor that precipitated the rise in the first place: Chinese government policy. To relieve the high domestic prices that are underpinning the rebound in seaborne demand, China is enacting policy that will boost its domestic production. The arbitrage window, widely open at the end of 2016, will close to a crack by the end of 2017 and seaborne exports to China will decline. Or will they? In fact, there is risk associated with China’s attempts to calm the markets and keep prices within a defined range. Their market tampering activities may, or may not, succeed. If their efforts fail, the price bubble of the last few months could return and along with it, another rebound in seaborne demand.