Commodity market report

Global thermal coal short-term outlook January 2017: the price bubble has popped – for now

Loading current market price

Get this report

Loading current market price

Get this report as part of a subscription

Enquire about Subscriptions

Already have subscription? Sign In

Further information

Pay by Invoice or Credit Card FAQs

Contact us

For further information about this report submit the form below.

Report summary

The price of Newcastle 6 000 kcal/kg NAR spot coal needed less than six months to grow from about US$50/t to a peak price of US$109/t. But what goes up must come down and we forecast prices will find a new much lower base in just 12 to 18 months. The cooling off has been triggered by the same factor that precipitated the rise in the first place: Chinese government policy. To relieve the high domestic prices that are underpinning the rebound in seaborne demand China is enacting policy that will boost its domestic production. The arbitrage window widely open at the end of 2016 will close to a crack by the end of 2017 and seaborne exports to China will decline. Or will they? In fact there is risk associated with China s attempts to calm the markets and keep prices within a defined range. Their market tampering activities may or may not succeed. If their efforts fail the price bubble of the last few months could return and along with it another rebound in seaborne demand.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    wm coal monthly thermal trade january 2017 final.xls

    XLS 1.84 MB

  • Document

    Global thermal coal short-term outlook January 2017: the price bubble has popped – for now

    PDF 447.47 KB

  • Document

    Global thermal coal short-term outlook January 2017: the price bubble has popped – for now

    ZIP 1.83 MB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
  • Demand
  • Supply

Tables and charts

This report includes 7 images and tables including:

Images

  • Key prices – history and forecast, nominal US$/t
  • Change in seaborne thermal coal imports by country versus the previous year (Mt)
  • Change in seaborne thermal coal exports by country versus the previous year (Mt)
  • Demand: Image 2
  • Supply: Image 2

Tables

  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Colombia production history and forecast (Mt)

Questions about this report?

  • Europe:
    +44 131 243 4699
  • Americas:
    +1 713 470 1900
  • Asia Pacific:
    +61 2 8224 8898