Commodity Market Report

Global thermal coal short-term outlook January 2018: cold winter, supply shortage, hot prices

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01 February 2018

Global thermal coal short-term outlook January 2018: cold winter, supply shortage, hot prices

Report summary

The perfect storm is happening in the energy market in China. In addition to the harsh winter weather that has increased coal demand for heating, the country's reversal of its coal-to-gas switching efforts has caused an increase in consumption of both domestic and international coal. FOB Newcastle has been above US$90/t for almost six months now. Domestic coal prices are expected to continue strengthening throughout the beginning of the Chinese New Year. Fundamentals point to a softening in prices after February.

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
    • China coal-gas switching debacle; demand up, supply constrained amid growing prices
      • Monthly power demand – TWh
    • China launches national carbon market
    • India demand
    • European demand
    • Coal power expected to lose market share during the summer
    • Strong wind generation curbs coal demand in Germany
    • The rain in Spain – unlikely to avoid another hydro shortfall
    • Turkey: government favours domestic coal in latest policy move
    • India’s CIL struggles to increase output
    • Australia still struggling with infrastructure issues
    • Freezing conditions cause transport delays and impact Russian port loadings
    • South Africa exported its highest ever coal throughput in 2017
    • Colombia coal supply growth uncertain
    • US at risk of another coal/gas race to the bottom, triggering a push for exports

Tables and charts

This report includes 8 images and tables including:

  • Key market data
  • Key prices - history and forecast (nominal, US$/t)
  • Demand: Image 2
  • SRMC of power from coal and gas ( /MWh)
  • Demand: Image 4
  • Demand: Image 5
  • Spain hydro reserves history - Twh
  • Demand: Image 1

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    wm coal monthly thermal trade January 2018 v1.xls

    XLS 2.35 MB

  • Document

    Global thermal coal short-term outlook January 2018: cold winter, supply shortage, hot prices

    PDF 351.42 KB

  • Document

    Global thermal coal short-term outlook January 2018: cold winter, supply shortage, hot prices

    ZIP 2.06 MB

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