Commodity Market Report
Global thermal coal short-term outlook January 2021: winter freeze heats up coal markets
Report summary
The La Niña weather cycle was much to blame for the run on thermal coal prices in January. The cycle resulted in freezing temperatures across much of the northern hemisphere – where major demand regions are located – and more cyclone activity and wetter weather in the southern hemisphere – location of major coal exporting regions. Coupled with coronavirus-related transportation and mine operation disruptions, it is safe to say that global coal supplies were tight in January.
Table of contents
- High/low scenarios
- China – a winter blast drives up demand and hampers supply
- India – peak power driven by the industrial market
- Europe – cold weather and high gas prices drive a resurgence in coal interest
-
Japan & South Korea – greater coal generation driven by the cold snap and tight LNG
- Japan
- South Korea
- Australia – strong exports, despite challenges
- Indonesia – flooding causes force majeure at some mines
- South Africa – maintenance completed but rail lines still face issues
- Colombia – production is picking up, but challenges still loom
- Russia – railways create a bottleneck to responding to Asian demand
Tables and charts
This report includes 3 images and tables including:
- Low and high cases for Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg at confidence intervals of 5%, 33%, 66% and 95% (US$/t)
- China seaborne thermal coal imports by month, Mt
- Indonesia coal production
What's included
This report contains:
Other reports you may be interested in
Commodity Market Report
Global thermal short-term outlook March 2024
External factors lift prices in an otherwise bearish market
$5,000
Commodity Market Report
Global thermal short-term outlook January 2024
2023 breaks global coal demand record though more price easing on the horizon
$5,000
Commodity Market Report
Global thermal short-term outlook February 2024
Markets entering a pricing steady-state environment with little impetus for quick movement
$5,000
