Commodity market report
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10 Pages

Global thermal coal short-term outlook July 2016

Global thermal coal short-term outlook July 2016

Report summary

Perception plays a key part in the recent run up in prices. Traditional European suppliers such as Colombia and South Africa are diverting cargoes towards Asia; supply cuts in China are seen to be overdone, resulting in increase in imports. Market is perceived to be tight in the short term. We expect market to remain tight till at least Q1 next year, supporting the current high coal prices.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global thermal coal short-term outlook July 2016 PDF - 359.06 KB 10 Pages, 1 Tables, 7 Figures
  • wm coal monthly thermal trade July 2016 final.xls XLS - 1.38 MB


Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Thermal Coal Market Short Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the thermal coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
    • Strong momentum in prices expected to maintain till year-end
  • Demand
    • China: to regain its crown as largest seaborne thermal coal importer, again?
    • Rest of Asia: upside potential in Vietnam and Malaysia
    • European demand: generally subdued but pockets of demand seen in Germany
  • Supply
    • China: supply rationalisation remains the key determinant of seaborne market
    • Indonesia: weak demand for low energy coal and rainfalls have impacted H1 production
    • Mozambique: thermal exports have surprised on the upside

In this report there are 8 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Key market data table
  • Prices
    • Monthly supply-demand balance and price change
    • Key prices - history and forecast, nominal US$/t
  • Demand
    • China seaborne imports and price arbitrage (Mt, US$/t)
    • Capacity additions in Southeast Asia (MW)
    • German raw hard coal burn (Mt)
    • Clean spreads continue to favour coal burn in Germany
    • Indexed European gas, carbon and coal prices
  • Supply
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