Commodity Market Report

Global thermal coal short-term outlook July 2018: prices reach record highs

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01 August 2018

Global thermal coal short-term outlook July 2018: prices reach record highs

Report summary

With summer fast approaching in China and India, utilities have been in preparation mode and restocking activity has been in full effect. Also, for China, the threat of further import restrictions at the ports is causing heightened interest in building up supplies. Prices have strengthened over the last month as a result of the restocking activity, weak nuclear generation in Japan and South Korea, and supply issues at some exporting countries. The Newcastle 6,000 kcal NAR price gained 12% over the last month.

Table of contents

    • Key market data
    • Key market prices
    • 2018 April to March thermal coal contract price settlement emerges, finally
    • Spread between high CV and high-ash coal prices widens
    • Price outlook:
    • China : 2020 climate action plan targets coal use in domestic heating
    • China: power demand to surge during the summer
    • India: production targets missed again in June amid strong power demand
    • South Korea: raises tax on coal consumption for power
    • Europe: H1 2018 coal generation pushed down by wind and hydro
    • Pakistan: Supreme Court bans coal imports through Karachi port
    • Colombia: first ever South American ultra-supercritical coal plant plans take shape
    • China: China Railway to increase coal transportation capacity
    • China: Shenhua Energy increases coal sales during H1 2018
    • Indonesia: DMO review could impact supply availability in H2
    • Indonesia: new rule on cargo insurance requirement delayed
    • Indonesia: new license rule has minimal impact on seaborne supply
    • Indonesia: Banati production recovers from heavy rains
    • Russia: flooding disrupts eastward coal shipments
    • Colombia: H1 exports below targets for all major producers
    • South Africa: Exxaro starts work on a new 2.7 Mtpa mine
    • Canada: Vista export mine under construction

Tables and charts

This report includes 7 images and tables including:

  • Executive summary: Image 1
  • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Spread between Newcastle NAR 6,000 kcal/kg and high ash NAR 5,500 kcal/kg
  • Key prices – history and forecast (nominal, US$/t)
  • Power supply in Europe largest six electricity markets (TWh)
  • 2018 electricity capacity mix in Colombia
  • Electricity generation by fuel 2000-2018 (GWh)

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Global thermal coal short-term outlook July 2018: prices reach record highs

    PDF 620.17 KB

  • Document

    wm coal monthly thermal trade July 2018.xls

    XLS 2.86 MB

  • Document

    Global thermal coal short-term outlook July 2018: prices reach record highs

    ZIP 2.67 MB

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