Commodity market report
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11 Pages

Global thermal coal short-term outlook June 2016

Global thermal coal short-term outlook June 2016

Report summary

The price reaction to Brexit was mixed in the Atlantic and mild in the Pacific. FOB prices increased dramatically for Russian, Colombian and eastern US coals. But ARA and Richards Bay prices actually declined, already being at levels above those completely supportable by the fundamentals. Principally, prices reacted to sentiment and changes in foreign exchange rates and not to fundamentals of supply and demand. In the Pacific market, events in China far outweighed the impact of Brexit and price change was minimal. For the year, should the China arbitrage window remain open as we expect, global demand for seaborne thermal coal will exceed supply and require a 30 Mt inventory draw. This global export shortfall should continue into 2017, but at the slightly lower level of 25 Mt. Generally, current price levels for most coal types will be supported by the fundamentals.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global thermal coal short-term outlook June 2016 PDF - 386.69 KB 11 Pages, 1 Tables, 6 Figures
  • wm coal monthly thermal trade June 2016 final.xls XLS - 1.42 MB


Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Thermal Coal Market Short Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the thermal coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
    • Brexit!
    • Summary of prices
  • Demand
    • Thermal coal consumption in China facing headwinds
    • “China pull factor”: an answer to seaborne market malaise?
    • Rail fee reductions in China have the potential to offset mine price increases
  • Supply
    • Indonesian suppliers are finding ways to navigate weak markets
    • Capacity reform in China tightens markets
      • Can China have its cake and eat it too?
    • Protectionism in India threatens import reductions but the near-term risk is small

In this report there are 7 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Key market data table
  • Prices
    • Key prices: history and forecast, nominal US$/t
  • Demand
    • Demand: Image 1
    • Demand: Image 2
  • Supply
    • Supply: Image 1
    • India 2020 thermal coal imports breakdown, Mt
    • Indian thermal coal imports scenario 2016-2020, Mt
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