The price reaction to Brexit was mixed in the Atlantic and mild in the Pacific. FOB prices increased dramatically for Russian, Colombian and eastern US coals. But ARA and Richards Bay prices actually declined, already being at levels above those completely supportable by the fundamentals. Principally, prices reacted to sentiment and changes in foreign exchange rates and not to fundamentals of supply and demand. In the Pacific market, events in China far outweighed the impact of Brexit and price change was minimal. For the year, should the China arbitrage window remain open as we expect, global demand for seaborne thermal coal will exceed supply and require a 30 Mt inventory draw. This global export shortfall should continue into 2017, but at the slightly lower level of 25 Mt. Generally, current price levels for most coal types will be supported by the fundamentals.
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Global thermal coal short-term outlook June 2016 PDF - 386.69 KB 11 Pages, 1 Tables, 6 Figures
Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.
This Thermal Coal Market Short Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.
Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the thermal coal markets.
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Commodity market report | Jul 2016
Global thermal coal short-term outlook June 2016
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