Commodity market report
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10 Pages

Global thermal coal short-term outlook March 2016

Global thermal coal short-term outlook March 2016

Report summary

Japanese Power Utilities (JPU) contract negotiations with producers are close to completion. We expect the parties to settle at between US$58-60/t. Thermal coal supply remains in significant overcapacity. Demand is very weakly growing in Pacific markets and continues to decline in Atlantic markets. Despite weak fundamentals, thermal coal benchmark prices have risen slightly on slightly on rising oil prices and a slightly weakening US dollar. 

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global thermal coal short-term outlook March 2016 PDF - 350.41 KB 10 Pages, 2 Tables, 3 Figures
  • wm coal monthly thermal trade March 2016.xls XLS - 1.07 MB


Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Thermal Coal Market Short Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the thermal coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
  • Prices
    • Japanese power utilities and miners on the verge of settling thermal contract price
      • JPU settlement prices (nominal US$/t) and real purchasing power of the yen (t coal/million 2015 JPY)
    • Pacific market thermal coal prices are rising modestly
    • Exchange rate and oil price growth will lift Atlantic thermal coal prices slightly
      • Key prices: history and forecast, nominal US$/t
  • Demand
    • Will Indian steps to relieve domestic coal supply constraints risk import growth?
    • Cracks appearing in Vietnam’s aggressive coal development programme
    • The UK and Spain: falling domestic production softens import weakness
  • Supply
    • Colombia crisis averted: would it have mattered much?
      • ARA 6,000 kcal/kg NAR before and after news of a possible coal strike at Cerrejon (US$/t)
      • Colombia 2016 production forecast by mine (Mt)
    • Russian seaborne exports remained strong in 2015
    • Overcapacity in China weighs on markets, domestic and international

In this report there are 5 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Key market data table
  • Prices
    • Prices: Image 1
    • Prices: Image 2
  • Demand
  • Supply
    • Supply: Image 1
    • Supply: Table 1
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