Commodity market report

Global thermal coal short-term outlook March 2017: Cyclone Debbie bears down on Queensland

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Report summary

Thermal coal prices have moved in opposite directions through March for each basin; upwards volatility in Asia and steady declines in Europe. The confluence of factors is clouding direction: lack of coherent supply policy from China, annual JPU contract negotiation in Japan, risk premium from Cyclone Debbie in Queensland, and further weakening of demand in Europe. There is potential for short-term strength in April and May contracts, depending on outage from Cyclone Debbie - although it is still too early to see the true impact. But all else, our forecasts are little changed from last month.

What's included

This report contains

  • Document

    wm coal monthly thermal trade March 2017.xls

    XLS 2.02 MB

  • Document

    Global thermal coal short-term outlook March 2017: Cyclone Debbie bears down on Queensland

    PDF 478.80 KB

  • Document

    Global thermal coal short-term outlook March 2017: Cyclone Debbie bears down on Queensland

    ZIP 1.90 MB

Table of contents

  • Executive summary
    • Prices: uncertain times as Cyclone Debbie clouds Chinese policy and contract negotiations
    • What does it mean for prices through the balance of the year?
    • Supply restrictions hamper Pacific basin shippers
    • Supply restrictions in China re-emerging: no national 276-day policy though
    • European demand decline gathers pace
    • Indian softness continues: imports to decline further this year
    • Nuclear saga in Japan and South Korean continues

Tables and charts

This report includes 6 images and tables including:

Images

  • Changing monthly direction for key prices
  • Price forecast
  • Map of affected area

Tables

  • Key market data
  • China coal capacity cuts (Mtpa)
  • China coal production increases (Mtpa)

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