Commodity market report
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13 Pages

Global thermal coal short-term outlook May 2016

Global thermal coal short-term outlook May 2016

Report summary

China's government aims to cut 500 Mtpa of coal capacity during the next three to five years and adjust existing mine capacity by reducing the maximum working days to 276 a year.Weak economic growth, the decoupling of electricity demand with GDP growth and the increase in hydropower generation in southern China continue to weigh on electricity demand despite cuts in output capacity. In April seaborne thermal coal imports declined by about 1 Mt from the previous month to 12.5 Mt. Compared with the same period last year the volume fell 2.6 Mt (-17%). Moreover, for January to April the seaborne import volume fell 6.2% (3 Mt). We forecast China seaborne yearly thermal imports to reach 124 Mt in 2016 representing a 19 Mt decline from the 2015 level.

In this report, we include a global supply-demand balance for all seaborne coal consuming countries. We capture monthly time series, from 2014, forecast out to end-2017. We welcome all feedback and hope clients find it additive to the service.

What's included?

This report includes 2 file(s)

  • Global thermal coal short-term outlook May 2016 PDF - 371.75 KB 13 Pages, 2 Tables, 6 Figures
  • wm coal monthly thermal trade May 2016 v2.xls XLS - 1.17 MB


Global coal markets are facing extraordinary challenges and uncertainties. Factors such as global overcapacity, weakening demand and falling prices have created cautious investors. These factors have caused delays and cancellations of many mine and infrastructure projects, as well as lower growth rates at others.

This Thermal Coal Market Short Term Outlook report gives global and regional coal producers, consumers, transporters and investors detailed supply, demand and price forecasts for the coal industry, covering all the key domestic markets in North America, China and India.

Use this report to gain a better understanding of market dynamics, including revenue and demand potential for different coals. It will also help you identify trade patterns and changes affecting the thermal coal markets.

Wood Mackenzie is the only coal industry service provider that offers a market outlook integrated with other sector analyses, including macroeconomics, coal supply, steel markets and gas and power markets. Our coal analysts are based in the markets they analyse. They work with objective, proprietary data to help you maximise your current and future investments.

From market dynamics to trade patterns, we give you confidence in your strategic planning.

  • Executive summary
    • Key market data* table
  • Prices
    • Coal prices have reached a new bottom, but slow recovery is expected
      • China price arbitrage
      • GlobalCOAL trades for Phys Newcastle (FOB) product US$/t
    • Will Colombian sales to Asia balance supply and demand in the Atlantic?
  • Demand
    • China demand: April power consumption up 1.9%
    • China's NDRC releases policy to reduce coal use for heating
    • Mexico acquired 6 Mt of coal requirements for June 2016 to July 2017
    • India's coal imports slip in April
    • Japan's Shikoku Electric Power shuts down nuclear reactor
  • Supply
    • Chinese supply
    • Colombian supply
    • Australian supply round-up

In this report there are 8 tables or charts, including:

  • Executive summary
    • Executive summary: Table 1
  • Prices
    • Prices: Image 1
    • Prices: Image 2
    • globalCoal trades for Phys ARA (DES) product US$/t
    • Key prices: history and forecast, nominal US$/t
    • Global balance versus price change
  • Demand
    • China seaborne thermal coal imports (Mt)
  • Supply
    • 2016 Colombia coal export forecast (Mt)
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